
Only a couple weeks until the fantasy playoffs are here — don't be left on the outside looking in with these top RB handcuffs!

A mere three weeks separate us from the fantasy football playoffs. Immeasurable amounts of blood, sweat, and tears have been shed on fantasy rosters already–and we're not done yet, people!
I don't care if you're 11-0 or 0-11 (okay, the latter would really suck, and I'm sorry if that's the case), but yeah: Our sole focus is coming away with a W in Week 12. Cool? Cool.
This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 12 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person. This week's topics:
As always: It's a great day to be great.
The Chiefs won five of six games between Weeks 3-8 and were (again) looking like the class of the AFC. After all, Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice was back from suspension, and speedster Xavier Worthy was healthy. This group should have been poised to put together one of the better stretches we've seen from this passing game in recent memory.
Or not. The Chiefs' last eight quarters of football have produced just 40 total points and one passing TD, as the Bills and Broncos proved plenty capable of slowing down Andy Reid and company. Of course, some members of the passing attack have managed to put up better counting numbers than others during this relative down stretch.
Chiefs PPR points per game this season:
The key party sticking out there is Worthy, who seemed on the verge of balling the hell out upon racking up 121 total yards against the Ravens in Week 4 … but has since averaged just 38.8 yards per game with just one single TD across his last six contests.
The biggest issue has been Mahomes and Worthy's continued lack of chemistry on deep balls. The duo has connected on just four of 19 (21%) of their targets thrown 30-plus yards downfield–the 12th-lowest mark among 44 qualified WRs over the past two seasons. Not great, but I wanted to get a better idea of who exactly has been at fault on these deep passes.
After going back and watching all 19 of these bombs…
While Worthy and Mahomes' 21.1% catch rate on these deep ball targets is not great, it's also not THAT far removed from what guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling (25.9%), Demarcus Robinson (29.4%), Justin Watson (32.1%), Tyquan Thornton (36.7%), and even Tyreek Hill (36.7%) managed in Kansas City over the years. We're talking about Tyreek-level efficiency here with a better outcome on just three of these targets … but for whatever reason Mahomes simply hasn't been able to match that downfield chemistry with Worthy despite displaying far better accuracy with Thornton.
TL;DR: Both parties are at fault here. Mahomes has had his misses and is hardly free of the blame, but it's also not like Worthy has consistently displayed the sort of downfield separation/ball-tracking ability that many expected coming into the league. I struggle to see much of a reason to overly believe this connection will simply correct itself during the second half of this season, and Worthy's lack of schemed lower-aDOT targets with Rashee Rice back in action makes it tough to anticipate a major breakthrough for him in fantasy land. Sigh.
Last week we highlighted Emanuel Wilson in this very section. Of course, Wilson – and Kenneth Gainwell – are now rightfully waiver wire darlings following injuries to Josh Jacobs (knee) and Jaylen Warren (ankle), so it's time to direct our attention to the new crop of under-owned handcuffs.
The top eight handcuffs I would prioritize that were available on at least 50% of Yahoo waiver wires as of Tuesday:
The three that stick out to me in particular:
Last week this section highlighted Tee Higgins (yay!), Stefon Diggs (alright!),Troy Franklin (that's cool!) … Jalen Nailor (well, that's not great) … and the Eagles WRs (oh no).
So yes: Even the cleanest on-paper mismatches don't always come true. After all, we are trying to predict the future in a sport featuring 60 minutes of 11-on-11 car crashes between the world's best athletes who attempt to move a ball that isn't even round.
But damn, is that going to stop us from trying? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
With this in mind: Our strategy will focus on WRs ideally…
Two obvious options that immediately stick out: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and Bengals WR Tee Higgins. You're starting them regardless of the matchup–even if there's a fire–but they've been especially force-fed the football against man coverage this season and face off against the league's No. 2 (Giants) and No. 11 (Patriots) most man-heavy defenses this week. I've seen worse candidates for a good ole ladder bet!
Two less locked-in options for this week who look to have plenty of positive data points pointing in their direction:
The only other options that fit our criteria: Ravens WRs Rashod Bateman (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins have been targeted more often against man, although Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are Lamar Jackson's top-two options, regardless of the coverage. Additionally, Steelers WR Calvin Austin has seen improved splits against man, but his season-low 36% route rate last week is concerning enough to avoid him for the time being.
The below chart shows every team's pressure rate allowed in Weeks 1-5 vs. Weeks 6-11:

Some notes:
Of course, pressure impacts every QB differently, which leads us to our next question…
The below chart denotes what every QB with 100-plus dropbacks has done under pressure this season.

Some notes:

Workhorse alert: 13 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 11: Jonathan Taylor (91% in Week 10), TreVeyon Henderson (90%), Bijan Robinson (86%), Rico Dowdle (83%), Chase Brown (83%), Kareem Hunt (82%), Saquon Barkley (80%), De'Von Achane (80%), Javonte Williams (78%), Ashton Jeanty (76%), Breece Hall (72%), Jahmyr Gibbs (72%), and Emanuel Wilson (71%). Each is a top-24 option in my Week 11 ranks and should be auto starts in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes.
That Jahmyr Gibbs guy is pretty good: That applies to creating big plays AND taking care of the football.
Most combined carries and targets without a single fumble or drop this season:
Josh Jacobs is hurt, dog: Of course, the only reason why Wilson cracked the workhorse list is because Jacobs suffered a knee injury during the Packers' Week 11 win over the Giants. While the injury isn't considered to be a long-term problem, Jacobs is iffy at best for Week 12, meaning Wilson could be thrust into a fairly hefty role if last week's usage was any indication. Now, the team will have a full week to potentially alter plans–usage following mid-game injuries can sometimes be misleading–but I'm pretty inclined to trust Wilson moving forward. After all, he has 64 touches compared to just 10 for Chris Brooks this season, and MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring, IR) remains out of the picture. Wilson handled 94% of the backfield's snaps following Jacobs' injury.
Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include:
Muddled committees are so lame: And the Commanders, Titans, Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals largely continue to insist on deploying just that. Accordingly, Kenneth Walker is the only involved back to crack my top 24 and that's mostly just because of bye weeks and an expected positive game-script against the lowly Titans. None of these RBs should be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist.
New RB1 in Tampa Bay?: Not really. Credit to Sean Tucker on his AWESOME Week 11 performance, but the underlying usage still suggests a fairly even split between him and Rachaad White. The more intriguing factor here is what will happen once Bucky Irving (shoulder) returns. Obviously a 100% healthy Bucky would dominate usage, but could we see a bit more of a reduced role early on–particularly with Tucker playing so well?

Jaylen Warren is hurt, dog: It remains to be seen if Warren's ankle injury will result in any missed time. If inactive, Kenneth Gainwell would be expected to handle the lion's share of work in the first of several cozy matchups for this run game.
Emari Demercado is also hurt, dog: But good news: Trey Benson (knee, IR) has had his 21-day practice window opened! Bam Knight is probably the next-man-up should Benson still not be ready for Sunday–he'd be my highest-ranked RB should both Demercado and Benson fail to suit up. That said: Neither Knight (nor Benson) profile as anything close to must-start options at the moment with a committee of some shape or size still likely in the near term.
Old but not forgotten: 2025 has hardly been a career year for David Montgomery and Alvin Kamara, but we shouldn't discount Week 12 bringing out the best in both. After all, the Lions (-10.5) and Saints (-1.5) are home favorites in winnable matchups against the Giants (30th in PPR points per game allowed to RBs) and Falcons (29th). If there was ever a week to start either RB, it's this one!
Two defenses were rostered in under 30% of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday and look capable of booming in their respective quality matchups:
The Chiefs DST (28.3% rostered): Have racked up multiple sacks in all but two games this season. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones took 15 sacks, threw four INTs, and fumbled six times in his last three games before the team's Week 11 bye. Don't be surprised if Steve Spagnuolo and company keep the bad times rolling for Jones in Arrowhead.
The Bears DST (21.5%): Have an NFL-best 22 takeaways and get to face either a banged-up Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph at home. Throw in a potential return from ace CB Jaylon Johnson (groin, IR), and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bears DST return their ninth top-13 weekly finish of the season.
Break glass in case of emergency units are headlined by:
Additionally, your FINAL weekly reminder: The Tampa Bay DST is THE prime unit to ride for Weeks 13-17. This is a quality real-life defense (12th in EPA allowed per play) that is a playoff contender and gets a borderline erotic schedule against the Cardinals (28th in DST fantasy points per game allowed), Saints (27th), Falcons (16th but now starting Cousins), Panthers (25th), and Dolphins (24th) through the end of the fantasy season. Giddyup!
Every week I publish an early rankings column midday Monday that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 12 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the three biggest questions and answers I had.
*Law and Order Music*
These are their stories.
Who was *this* close to having a much bigger Week 11?
The following players were tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score a TD on the same drive last week (pre-MNF):
Players tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive:
The two RBs atop this unfortunate leaderboard this season: Travis Etienne (7) and Kyren Williams (5). The latter is especially unfortunate considering all five of these sheeshy occurrences occurred on different drives!
Moral of the story: Find someone who loves you like Matthew Stafford loves Davante Adams near the goal line.
Which RBs have done the most cool shit this season?
My definition:
I decided to double-count these factors: An explosive touchdown featuring three broken tackles is worth five points, not one. Cool? Cool.
The leaderboard among all RBs with 50+ opportunities (full list is here):
Adds up! Particular kudos to Hampton, Warren, and Miller (injuries suck) for posting the position's top-three marks in forced missed tackles per opportunity. Warren sure looked like he was on his way to a BIG performance last week before suffering an ankle injury. I appreciated his ability to seamless transition a failed hurdle attempt into a f*ck you stiff arm.
… yeah! Home team listed first:
Thursday night football: Texans vs. Bills (-5.5): It's been cool to see Woody Marks take over this Texans backfield, but at some point the rookie needs to display more efficiency: Marks ranks among the league's bottom-seven RBs in yards per carry (3.5, 39th), yards after contact per carry (2.4, 37th), and tackles avoided per carry (14.1%, 35th).
Packers (-3.5) vs. Vikings: JJ McCarthy has posted a brutal 5.7% interception rate this season. That's the fourth-worst mark among 108 qualified QBs in their first five starts since 2010.
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Colts: Travis Kelce is back to working as one of the position's best YAC creators!

Bengals vs. Patriots (-8.5): Chase Brown has been a different man ever since Joe Flacco appeared under center.
Chase Brown rushing splits:
Weeks 1-5: 2.5 yards per carry, 2.1 yards after contact per carry, 0% explosive rush rate, 13.8% tackles avoided per carry
Weeks 6-11: 5.9 yards per carry, 4.5 yards after contact per carry, 16.4% explosive rush rate, 29.5% tackles avoided per carry
Bears (-3) vs. Steelers: Darnell Washington recently said he currently weighs 311 pounds. And yet, he's objectively the most fun player in the league to watch with the football in his hands.
Ravens (-13.5) vs. Jets: Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell ranks first in NFL history in career yards per carry at 6.6 (min. 75 rush attempts).
Lions (-10.5) vs. Giants: Only five WRs have averaged north of three yards per route against man coverage this season: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb … and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Giants have run the league's second-most man coverage through 11 weeks of action.
Titans vs. Seahawks (-13.5): Speaking of JSN: The man is averaging 4.31 yards per route run at the moment. That's easily the highest single-season mark since 2015 and just the 10th instance of a WR even clearing three (min. 50 targets, including playoffs)!

Cardinals vs. Jaguars (-2.5): How good has Trey McBride been this year? His average of 18.5 PPR points per game obviously leads the position, but it's also good for the eighth-highest mark among all tight ends and wide receivers! The results with just Jacoby Brissett under center have been even better–McBride's 24.5 PPR points per game literally lead all WRs and TEs since Week 6. Pretty good!
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Browns: The season started out awfully promising for Quinshon Judkins, but the going has been tough in recent weeks. Overall, Judkins averaged 15.5 PPR points per game (RB12) in Weeks 1-5, but has slipped to 10.2 points (RB28) in Weeks 6-11.
Cowboys vs. Eagles (-3.5): AJ Brown has displayed some (Ned) stark yards per route run splits against man/zone coverage this season. Note that the Cowboys ran zone coverage on 95% of the Eagles' dropbacks in Week 1.
Brown yards per route run among 64 qualified WRs:
Man coverage: 3.98 (2nd behind only JSN)
Zone coverage: 0.96 (59th)
Saints (-1.5) vs. Falcons: Bijan Robinson is on pace for 2,191 total yards this season. Since 2015 the only RBs to clear that mark: 2019 Christian McCaffrey (2,392) and 2024 Saquon Barkley (2,283). Not too shabby!
Sunday night football: Rams (-6.5) vs. Buccaneers: Kyren Williams has played 41 games over the past three seasons (including playoffs). Kyren has scored … 41 touchdowns in those games. Only Jahmyr Gibbs (46 in 46) and Derrick Henry (42 in 46) have more.
Monday night football: 49ers (-7) vs. Panthers: CMC currently has a league-high 267 touches. That puts him on pace for 413 on the season–a mark that has only been surpassed by DeMarco Murray (449 in 2014) since 2010!
And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Jonathan Taylor to have a big game, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (mostly in the form of my weekly mismatch manifesto charts).
1. Rome Odunze rebounds, catches 7 passes for 120 yards and a TD vs. Pittsburgh. The aforementioned man/zone splits bode well for Odunze ahead of this smash spot against the Steelers' league-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position. We've seen Caleb Williams and company dominate vs. below-average defenses–something that the Steelers have been more weeks than not this season. Fun fact: No defense has allowed more 100+ receiving yard efforts than the Steelers (8) through 11 weeks of action.
2. David Montgomery puts together his second-biggest game of the season–gains 110 yards and scores twice against the Giants. This group has given up an average of 175 rushing yards per game during the last five weeks. We all know Jahmyr Gibbs will get his, but man, this spot as a 10.5-point home favorite in a great on-paper matchup sure seems like the sort of week to expect big things from *both* Lions RBs. Only the Bengals (5) have allowed more 100+ yard rushing performances to opposing RBs than the Giants (4) this season.
3. Hunter Henry torches the Bengals for 85 yards and 2 TDs. Has one TD in his last seven games and hasn't surpassed 51 receiving yards in a game since Week 3 … but Henry gets to face the Bengals this week! Cincy is allowing a league-high 22.5 PPR points per game to opposing TE rooms–the difference between them and the 31st ranked Jaguars (4.7) is the same as Jacksonville and the league's 14th-ranked defense (Broncos)! Throw in the potential for Austin Hooper (concussion) to miss another matchup, and this week sure seems like a great spot for Henry to break out of his slump.
Last week: Romeo Doubs (4-53-0) did not go off, RJ Harvey (50-scoreless yards) did not make the most out of his first start, and Greg Dulcich (2-18-0) did not record a top-10 finish. Yikes! As always: We'll watch the film and get better.
Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 12 and beyond!
