
Matthew Freedman breaks down how he envisions the first round of fantasy football mock drafts to go early in the 2026 offseason.

Super Bowl 61 ended not even a week ago, but when it comes to fantasy football, there's no such thing as an offseason.
So here's a way-too-early 2026 fantasy football mock draft for Round 1.
For our 2026 fantasy football ranks, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package. And if you're looking for NFL draft content, check out my most recent mock draft.
In terms of how I view Round 1, I think there's a tier drop-off after the guys in the top six.
A few weeks ago, Dwain McFarland (our Director of Analytics) and I got together for an episode of Talk Data to Me in which we discussed league trends that have emerged over the past 2-5 years, one of which is this: Passing is down.
And it's especially impacting non-elite WRs.
Here's what I think that means for fantasy: WR1s, especially top-tier WR1s, might be more valuable than ever.
And that means I want to take Ja'Marr Chase at the 1.01.
Framed differently: If I take Chase at 1.01, I think I'll still get an RB I like at 2.12.
But if I take an RB at 1.01—let's say Bijan Robinson or maybe Jahmyr Gibbs—I probably won't like the WRs available there as much as I like the RBs.
Additionally, there's a case to be made for Chase at the 1.01 anyway, regardless of whoever is available in Rounds 2-3.
Even with the recent decline in passing, Chase's usage has actually increased over the past two years (in terms of targets per game).
Since 2024, Chase is easily No. 1 in the league with 360 targets. Unsurprisingly, he's also No. 1 in receptions (252), receiving yards (3,120) and receiving TDs (25).
In most leagues, I expect Chase not to go No. 1.
And I'm not even saying he should go No. 1.
But a case can be made for it—and in this mock, I wanted to go through the mental exercise of thinking about what my team might look like if I were to select him first.
And I think in most leagues if I take Chase at 1.01, I'll be able to get two RBs I like at the turn of Rounds 2-3: Maybe Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and/or Chase Brown.
I don't hate that idea.
Whoever picks at 1.02 will likely be thrilled to have Bijan Robinson "fall" down the board.
Robinson was the consensus No. 1 RB last year in fantasy drafts, and he delivered: He finished with an NFL-high 2,298 scrimmage yards, and he was the only RB to post top-five production in each of Weeks 15-17 ("fantasy playoffs").
Still just 24 years old, he has an uncertain QB situation (Michael Penix tore his ACL in November) and a new coaching staff (HC Kevin Stefanski, OC Tommy Rees), but Robinson's three-down skill set (287 carries, 103 targets last year) should neutralize any circumstantial negativity.
In all formats, Robinson should once again be the No. 1 RB selected, and he is in this mock.
A case can be made for Puka Nacua as the No. 1 WR in fantasy. Since he entered the league in 2023, Nacua has been easily No. 1 in receiving yards per game.
As a yardage producer, Nacua is in a tier unto himself. Not only does he have strong efficiency (9.7 yards per target), but he also still might be ascending (in terms of receiving yards per game).
His 107.2 receiving yards per game last year was a league-best mark … but it's not impossible that Nacua (in only his fourth season) could be even better this year.
Plus, he gets a small upward bump with his ability as a runner (33-240-2 rushing for career).
The one drawback with Nacua: He scored "only" 11 TDs last year (a career-best mark). That's a fine number—but the Rams have other guys on the team who can score (as evidenced by their 2025 TDs).
He'll need to compete for goal-line and end-zone opportunities once again in 2026, and it seems unlikely that MVP QB Matthew Stafford will once again throw a league-high 46 TDs or have a career-best 7.7% TD rate.
But I'm nitpicking. Nacua is awesome. I like getting him here at 1.03.
Jahmyr Gibbs has put up 3,768 yards and 38 TDs on 493 carries and 157 targets over the past two seasons. That could be the entire blurb, but there's more: His Utilization Score jumped up from 81 to 91 in 2025 (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and he could have a bigger workload in 2026 given that he's nearing his age peak (24 years old), whereas No. 2 RB David Montgomery (29) is on the downward side of the slope.
Locked in for 225+ carries and 75+ targets, Gibbs is good to go.
The maturation and development we've seen out of Jaxon Smith-Njigba across his three-year career have been remarkable.
The result: Last year, Smith-Njigba won OPOY and was a first-team All-Pro on the strength of his NFL-best 1,793 yards receiving.
I have him in the same tier with Chase and Nacua, but I expect him to be the No. 3 WR off the board more often than not because of his offense. The Seahawks are great, but I expect them to pass less than the Bengals and Rams … and there's a difference between catching passes from QB Sam Darnold and QBs Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford.
Christian McCaffrey will be 30 years old when the season kicks off in September, and he's coming off the least efficient performance of his career (4.8 yards per opportunity) since his rookie campaign.
That said, he was No. 1 in 2025 with an elite 98 Utilization Score, he finished as the No. 1 RB in fantasy scoring (20.9 half-PPR points per game) and he had a position-best eight fantasy finishes in the top five.
In total, he put up 2,126 yards and 17 TDs from scrimmage. Pretty good. And for 2026, the 49ers offense seems likely to flow through him once again.
McCaffrey won't dominate forever, but the beginning of his end is not necessarily nigh.
As was the case last year, I'd be happy to take him this year in the middle of Round 1.
As noted earlier, I see a drop-off between picks 6-7.
Because of that, I'll provide only brief notes on the guys in the rest of my mock.
CeeDee Lamb will still be very much in his physical prime entering this season at 27 years old, and over the past half-decade, he has more receiving yards (6,481) than every WR except for Justin Jefferson (7,080) and Ja'Marr Chase (6,481).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has stiff competition for opportunities with RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jameson Williams and TE Sam LaPorta, but he has more receiving yards (4,179) than everyone except for Ja'Marr Chase (4,336) and Puka Nacua (4,191) over the past three years.
I'm relatively high on Drake London in our rankings, but he's still young (he turns 25 in July), and I think he has a chance to catapult himself into the top tiers of WR producers this season. Over the past two years, he's No. 9 with 75.5 yards receiving per game, and the Falcons offense could improve in 2026 with the addition of offensive HC Kevin Stefanski.
Jonathan Taylor has missed 16 games over the past half-decade, but that's what RBs do: They miss games. When on the field, though, Taylor has been an elite per-game producer with 110.1 yards and 0.93 TDs from scrimmage since his 2021 first-team All-Pro campaign.
At 27 years old, Taylor is still explosive enough to put up 1,500+ yards and 15+ TDs: He had 1,963 and 20 last season. With Taylor, the question isn't production. It's whether he'll be durable enough to play 15+ games.
This is something of a risk-seeking pick, and a case could be made for a dozen players around the turn of Rounds 1-2, but Malik Nabers was great as a 21-year-old rookie in 2024 (109-1,204-7 receiving on 170 targets, 15 games), and he had a league-high air yard share (51%) before suffering a season-ending injury in 2025. This is a pure bet on talent.
Plus, most of the WRs that might be available in Rounds 3-4 strike me as particularly speculative. If drafters at the turn of Rounds 1-2 don't get WRs, then they might not like the options they have in Rounds 3-4.
De'Von Achane exploded as a rookie in limited action (997 yards, 11 TDs in 11 games), and then in his two follow-up campaigns, he proved himself to be a legitimate three-down dominator with 3,337 yards and 24 TDs on 441 carries and 172 targets in 33 games. He was especially strong last year, when he ranked as the No. 3 RB in Utilization Score (92).
Concerns about his size (5-9, 191 lbs.) and the absence of former HC Mike McDaniel are valid, but Achane still has league-winning juice. He belongs in Round 1.
