Short of an injury, there may be nothing as demoralizing as a player who busts in fantasy football. Scratch that, it may be more disheartening, because when a player gets injured, at least there's the belief that player would have performed as expected. At least that's what we tell ourselves to help us sleep at night. But when a player just underperforms almost weekly over an entire season, and fantasy managers are pot committed to start that player every week because of the invested draft capital, it zaps the fun and good feelings from draft day.

So while the season is still fresh, we brought together Ian Hartitz, Dwain McFarland, Kendall Valenzuela, Pete Overzet and Matthew Freedman for a roundtable discussion on some of their most memorable—not in a good way—busts from the 2025 season. And they pass along any wisdom they gleaned from drafting those players, or if they might go to the well again. 

Fantasy Football Roundtable: Last Season's Biggest Busts

Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. were the most notable early-round busts. How would you approach each of them in the early 2026 rankings?

Dwain: Justin Jefferson finished as the WR31 in PPR points per game (PPG) in 2025, after delivering WR10, WR4, WR2, WR5 and WR5 over his first five years. He continued to dominate targets (31%) and air yards (40%) for the Vikings, but J.J. McCarthy pushed the hypothesis that Kevin O'Connell could coach up any QB to new heights. McCarthy averaged a putrid 163 yards per game. The Vikings are in the market for a veteran QB to compete or serve as a backstop for McCarthy, should he flounder. Jefferson remains one of the best WRs in the NFL, so it's hard to push a talent like that too far down the ranks. He comes in as my WR8 in the early ranks.

Brian Thomas graded out as a decent prospect in the Rookie Super Model, but one of the holes in his game, analytically, was his consistency in working the middle areas of the field. Those issues resurfaced in his sophomore campaign in Liam Coen's offense. The emergence of Parker Washington and the addition of Jakobi Meyers created new target competition, and those players are best suited to attack the areas of the field that helped Chris Godwin surge to 19.7 PPR PPG in seven games with Coen in 2024. BTJ's aDOT climbed from 11.9 to 14.8 as he was pushed into a more vertical role, and his yards per route run (YPRR) fell from 2.45 to 1.50. We also have a question about how much Travis Hunter will play on offense. We can't throw Thomas’ rookie campaign with 16.5 PPG (WR5) out the window, but he must grow as a player to improve upon his 9.9 PPG (WR42) in Year 2. Since 2011, we have seen seven WRs finish in WR2 (top 24) territory or better in Year 1 and fall to WR3 or WR4 status in Year 2. Of that group, three eventually regained WR1 status, with one of them—Mike Evans—returning to the top 12 in Year 3. Thomas is a boom-bust WR3 option as my WR36 in our rankings.

Freedman: I mentioned this in a previous fantasy roundtable: In 2025, I was low on Jefferson, but this year I imagine I might be high on him relative to the market. I expect the Vikings offense to be better this year, whether that's because McCarthy has progressed or the team has replaced him with a veteran starter. Either way: The offense will be better.

Last year, Jefferson was still the No. 4 WR in target share (31%), and even with his relatively down 2025 campaign (1,048 yards receiving), over the past half decade he's the No. 1 WR in receiving yards (7,080). I can see a legitimate case for him to be ranked as high as the No. 5 WR in 2026.

As for Thomas: I liked him as a prospect because of his athletic profile (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds) and college production (68-1,177-17 receiving as a junior). And then as a rookie he balled out with 87-1,282-10 receiving on 133 targets in 17 games.

He disappointed in his second season (728 yards, 3 TDs from scrimmage) … but it was his first year with Coen, and he missed three games to injury. I'm the highest on Thomas in our rankings because I don't want to abandon my priors prematurely, especially when the harshness of his 2025 campaign can be softened (a little) with some context.

That said: I still view Thomas as a speculative WR3 (just one I'm willing to bet on), and if his 2026 season starts out poorly, then I will be quick to adjust my assumptions and rankings.

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Which player busted that surprised you most last season … outside of those two aforementioned WRs?

Ian: The lack of, well, anything from Xavier Worthy throughout 2025 was pretty alarming. Sure, the friendly-fire-induced shoulder injury in Week 1 was hardly an ideal start, but we had 13 games after that and … essentially nothing to show for it.

• PPR points per game: 7.9 (WR62)
• Yards per route run: 1.27 (WR59)
• Targets per route run: 17.4% (WR63)

It’s understandable some of Worthy’s easier low-aDOT opportunities dried up once Rashee Rice returned from suspension, but we’re talking about *one* game with even 65 receiving yards! One single touchdown all year! From the same guy who the Chiefs thought enough of to draft in Round 1 before heavily leaning on him during their ultimately ill-fated Super Bowl run!

Most damning has been Patrick Mahomes’ inability to get on the same page with Worthy when it comes to the deep ball. The downfield shot play that used to be such a constant source of explosiveness during the earlier days of the Chiefs' dynasty is suddenly nothing more than a Green Goblin mask that laughs at Mahomes every offseason—the two-time MVP has connected on just five of his 22 targets (23%) thrown 30-plus yards downfield to Worthy over the past two seasons, with two of those connections coming in garbage time during the Super Bowl.

Consider: Worthy had 9 receptions of 20-plus yards on 73 targets last season. Tyquan Thornton had 11 on … 37 targets. The Chiefs have repeatedly swung big in their attempt to find a legit field-stretching stud in the post-Tyreek era, but through two seasons, Worthy is looking like a whiff.

Pete: I thought Ladd McConkey was slightly overvalued heading into the year, but I was still surprised how little impact he had in fantasy in 2025. He was completely unusable through the first five weeks of the year, as he did not clear more than 13 points a single time. His close to the season was even worse:

• Week 14: 1.7
• Week 15: 3
• Week 16: 12.3
• Week 17: 3.6

It was a truly disappointing sophomore campaign after he broke out as a rookie. I’m not even sure we can use the Keenan Allen addition as a good excuse either—he was barely earning more targets than Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden during that four-game stretch:

His ADP is currently 37.1 in early best ball drafts on Underdog, which strikes me as drafters having not learned their lesson. I touched the hot stove last year at a price that was only slightly higher than it was after his flop year … I’m good on Ladd, dawg. He’s all yours.

What 2025 rookie was the biggest bust, and what can we learn from their season to apply to rookies moving forward?

Dwain: Compared to their preseason ADP, TreVeyon Henderson was the biggest rookie bust in 2025. He finished the season with 12.2 PPG, but that was largely buoyed by a three-game stretch with Rhamondre Stevenson out of the lineup, where Henderson averaged 24.3 PPG.

On the one hand, Henderson flashed the massive upside drafters hoped for when given the chance. On the other hand, Stevenson reclaimed the backfield upon his return. Historically, Round 2 rookie RBs gain value as the season progresses and become league-winners. Still, we have seen instances where a capable veteran back like Stevenson has held them at bay. Stevenson was a player who fantasy enthusiasts loved just a couple of years ago. Fantasy football is a game full of variance, and we want to continue to bet on players like Henderson. The lesson here isn't to fade rookie RBs with strong profiles. However, we also must remain mindful of price and opportunity costs. When rookies climb inside the top three rounds of fantasy drafts, we have to consider the opportunity cost. James Cook, a proven electric RB in his prime, was available at a similar price.

Kendall: It wasn't completely awful for Ashton Jeanty in 2025, but with his first-round price tag in drafts he definitely falls under the category of a bust. The ceiling was there, but the overall environment held Jeanty back. He finished the season with 266 carries for 975 yards —3.7 yards-per-carry, but the offensive line was the bigger story here and one that is hard to ignore. According to PFF,  the offensive line ranked 30th in run-blocking grade (53.0) and if we look closer at Jeanty’s 975 rushing yards, 815 came after contact.

The good news is that there is a new sheriff in town (even though I wrote a strongly worded message begging for this not to happen). The Raiders hired Klint Kubiak to be their new head coach, and with that a mountain of changes should be coming to this team. Under Kubiak, the Seahawks' offense finished 18th in points (22.1) and 14th in total yards (332.2).

Fernando Mendoza is expected to be the new starting quarterback, and if they heavily invest in the offensive line there is a chance we get to see Jeanty's full potential. The lesson here is to look at the full body of work —we can have a player who has all the talent and athletic ability, but if the overall product isn't good it will be very hard for them to thrive.

I know it’s early, but who do you currently see getting overhyped this offseason that could have massive bust potential in 2026?

Ian: It’s not like Ashton Jeanty was bad in 2025. He forced missed tackles at the position’s sixth-highest rate and racked up the eighth-most raw yards after contact in the league. Clearly, Jeanty’s RB15 finish in PPR points per game was more of a reflection of the Raiders’ sad excuse for a professional football team than a sign that the 2025 NFL Draft’s fifth overall pick is simply a bust. Better days will surely be ahead, right?

Well, I hope so—and so does the rest of the fantasy community considering the second-year talent is being drafted as the seventh running back off the board in early drafts. Jeanty is going inside Round 1!

On the one hand, it’s tough to rank a young, talented running back with the potential to breeze past 300 touches too low. On the other hand, those factors were all in play last season as well—and we can’t exactly assume the Raiders offense that doomed Jeanty will suddenly take a mighty turn for the better. Potential concerns include:

• A (hopefully really good) rookie QB
• PFF’s reigning 32nd-ranked offensive line
• More of a committee under Klint Kubiak, who fantasy managers begrudgingly watched split touches between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet last season

And hey, maybe Fernando Mendoza winds up being awesome right away, new-and-improved pieces are added to the offensive line, and Kubiak unleashes Jeanty as a three-down workhorse. Unfortunately, all three of those factors probably need to come to fruition for Jeanty to provide value at his current Round 1 ADP.

Believing in Jeanty’s talent and volume is cool, but is he THAT much more talented than guys like Omarion Hampton, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown and Josh Jacobs? Who also are looking at massive workloads in objectively far superior offenses? I guess we’ll find out!

Freedman: For a player to have massive bust potential, he needs to be someone fantasy investors actively build around. Someone they count on. Someone going in the top five rounds.

One guy who fits that description who stands out to me is Lamar Jackson. And I hate saying that. I feel dirty. I'm not saying he will definitely bust. I'm saying that he carries elevated risk.

Last year, Jackson was the No. 17 QB in fantasy with 16.3 points per game … and that's despite him opening the season with three straight top-5 fantasy finishes (29.4, 26.3 and 25.0 points).

But he suffered an injury in Week 4, missed Weeks 5-8, and then was a shell of himself for the rest of the season after returning (59.9% completion rate, 7.9 AY/A, 20.3 rushing yards per game).

Jackson will probably return to form in 2026. I have him ranked that way, and the market expects it … but what if Jackson—now at the age of 29—is no longer the elite runner he once was?

What if it was actually a mistake for the team to let OC Todd Monken go after he helped Jackson become the NFL's most efficient passer over the past three years (9.4 AY/A)?

What if what was a bad idea to hire new OC Declan Doyle, who isn't even 30 years old and has never been a play caller at any level of football?

Again, Jackson probably won't bust—but for the first time in years, he enters a season with more questions than answers.

What 2025 bust are you looking forward to buying the dip on the most in 2026?

Kendall: Sign me up for Breece Hall, who is currently RB17 off the board in early Underdog drafts. He finished the 2025 season with 243 carries and 1,065 yards and a total of 5 touchdowns.

The thing with Hall is that he could be on the move during free agency. If the Jets want to bring him back, they might have to franchise tag him, which will be worth $14.5 million in 2026. Some landing spots that Hall has been connected to are the Saints, Chiefs and Texans (so far). No matter what, it feels like a change of scenery for Hall could be the best opportunity to get more out of him.

Pete: I’m ready to go back to the Bucky Irving well. He’s currently the RB16 off the board in early Underdog drafts and is going a full round and a half later than he was in 2025 drafts.

For one, he should be much healthier in 2026 after missing seven games due to injury.

Secondly, Rachaad White is an unrestricted free agent who is likely not going to stay.

And finally, his new OC–Zac Robinson—who people forget went to preschool with me—just orchestrated a career year for Bijan Robinson in Atlanta.

Bucky’s price was certainly enthusiastic in 2025, but I mostly see upside at this new cost. I’ll be buying the m█████ ███████ dip.

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