
There is no better time than the present to update the RB handcuff tiers

We are over halfway through the fantasy season. Immeasurable amounts of blood, sweat, and tears have been shed on fantasy rosters already–and we're not done yet, people!
I don't care if you're 9-0 or 0-9 (okay, the latter would really suck, and I'm sorry if that's the case), but yeah: Our sole focus is coming away with a W in Week 10. Cool? Cool.
This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 10 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person. This week's topics:
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Handcuff running backs: Players who are *one* injury away from sky-rocketing up the fantasy ranks and landing on the cover of waiver wire articles across the injury.
Sure, a wild Puka Nacua or Jauan Jennings appears every once in a while, but no position produces more randomly fantasy-relevant options than RB. This is largely thanks to the reality that you don't necessarily have to be an elite talent at RB in order to rack up volume the same way you do as a receiver.
Presenting: My fantasy football handcuff tiers ahead of Week 10. Note that the myriad of factors at hand and loose definition of a handcuff makes this a bit more of an art than science. I also didn't count David Montgomery, Jordan Mason or Zach Charbonnet as handcuffs since they're all rostered in 80%+ leagues and are more-so 1.B options than actual backups. RBs are ordered in the tiers by their Wednesday rostership percentage on Yahoo.
Immediate RB1-level fantasy treatment is expected should the starter miss time…
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard (85%): We've seen the Panthers be willing to give Rico Dowdle 25-plus touch workloads as their clear lead back–something that would also be expected for Chuba, who was the RB13 in PPR points per game all the way back in … 2024.
Broncos RB RJ Harvey (83%): The NFL's most efficient RB in PPR points per touch has the sort of explosive pass-catching skill-set to go wild with a true full-time role.
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White (80%): Has posted 80%, 77%, 90%, and 55% snap shares with Bucky Irving sidelined. The latter low count still consisted of 15 touches and probably was only as low as it was due to White getting banged up early and the Bucs coasting to a comfortable 20-point win.
Bears RB Kyle Monangai (76%): The production vs. the Bengals was obviously awesome, but the every-down role that produced 31 combined carries and targets is the real reason for tier one handcuff treatment even once D'Andre Swift is back from injury.
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (34%): Possesses the sort of three-down skill-set to work as "75% Bijan Robinson" should the Falcons' stud starter ever be forced out of action.
49ers RB Brian Robinson (24%): Wouldn't expect CMC-level goodness of course, but give B-Rob credit for averaging a career-high 4.8 yards per carry with his limited opportunities–Elijah Mitchell/Jordan Mason upside RB2 numbers would be expected should he ever get a starting chance.
Rams RB Blake Corum (10%): Nobody has been more willing to leave one RB on the field than Sean McVay over the years. Maybe Jarquez Hunter keeps Corum from assuming a 90%+ snap share, but 20-plus carries and targets per week would immediately be expected.
Maybe we wouldn't rank these guys as immediate top-10 options with an injury, but they'd still be expected to handle something close to a bell-cow workload and would be suggested starters in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes…
Similar to Tier 2: These guys would all be suggested starters in the heavy majority of fantasy lineups if thrust into action, although there's at least one fairly bright red flag to worry about with this crew…
Multiple RBs would likely be in play should the starter get injured and it's unlikely any would immediately be no-doubt top-24 fantasy options…
I get annoyed about people wanting "Brashard Smith" to get more carries when he's averaging … 2.9 yards per carry. Or the entire fantasy community dying for Bhayshul Tuten to become a thing … when Travis Etienne has largely been playing great football all season long.
Hey, there's nothing wrong with rooting for your fantasy team or favorite offseason sleeper, but there's a difference between wanting something to happen for entirely personal reasons and active malpractice from NFL decision-makers. Cool? Cool.
That brings us to this topic: What RBs have been incredibly efficient on a per-touch basis and/or are vastly out-performing their team's starter, but simply haven't managed to get anything close to a consistently solid workload?
Three players who fit the bill:
Broncos RB RJ Harvey: There's nothing wrong with JK Dobbins; this is more so just a testament to the second-round rookie. Overall, Harvey is averaging 5.4 yards per touch (8th among 47 qualified RBs) and (even more impressively for our purposes) 1.39 PPR points per touch (1st!). The receiving flashes have been particularly tantalizing–Harvey remains one of the game's higher upside handcuffs, and it'd be a lot cooler if head coach Sean Payton gave the rookie a real chance to at least unseat Tyler Badie as the team's two-minute back.
Titans RB Tyjae Spears: Spears has managed to rather drastically out-perform Tony Pollard in yards per carry (5.1 vs. 4) and yards per target (6.9 vs. 6) through nine weeks of action. The eye test has been even more startling; Pollard has not really come close to resembling the same breathtaking playmaker that was regularly on display over the years in Dallas. Friendly reminder that Spears worked as THE PPR RB5 during the fantasy playoffs last season–that's the sort of upside on hand here should a bigger role emerge down the stretch.
Jets RB Isaiah Davis: We're really stretching the small-sample size thing here, and nobody is saying anything negative about Breece Hall, but: Davis has built on his rookie year success by (again) working as one of the league's more efficient rushers and receivers at the position.

Passer rating might not perfectly sum up a QB's performance, but that doesn't mean it's completely useless–particularly when looking at an offense's passing efficiency as a whole. In fact, one number that combines completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, and INTs per attempt is pretty cool if you ask me!
With this in mind: I wanted to get an idea of which teams have produced the league's most-efficient pass-catching duos–and the below chart shows off just that! I used arbitrary qualifiers of 20 receptions and 25 targets because otherwise this would simply become Drake Maye propaganda (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Some love for the top WRs:
As for the TEs: It really is a shame that the Bills insist on keeping Dalton Kincaid (58% route rate on the season) in a part-time role considering just how efficient the third-year TE has been with his opportunities all season long.

And finally at RB: It's been refreshing to see Kyren Williams make so much out of his opportunities as a receiver after largely struggling to do so during his first three seasons in the league. Pass-down ability was considered a strength of the former golden domer coming into the league, but that simply wasn't the case during the 2022-2024 seasons. He's averaging career-best marks nearly across the board in terms of per-game receiving numbers, something that has really helped his fantasy cause with Davante Adams hogging all the goal line TDs this season.
Every team in the NFL runs more zone than man, but some obviously still separate themselves. With this in mind: I wanted to look at extreme differences in targets per route run (TPRR) vs. man/zone coverage and match this with the fairly rare matchups featuring man-heavy defenses. Note that generally WRs will have higher TPRR rates against man coverage, while RBs and TEs get more looks against zone coverage.
Players who have consistently earned far more targets against man than zone and are facing a defense that has run man coverage on 35% or more of their snaps this season:
Raiders TE Brock Bowers (34% TPRR vs. man, 23% vs. zone) vs. Broncos: I know I literally just said TEs generally get more looks against zone, but as we all know: Bowers isn't your every day TE. Don't confuse a date in Mile High with a smash spot, but there should at least be plenty of opportunities on the table–we did see Bowers earn a whopping 22 targets in two games against this squad last season after all.
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (25% TPRR vs. man, 16% vs. zone) and Keenan Allen (30%, 27%) vs. Steelers: The Steelers have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WRs than anyone this season. Even the Cowboys! So these splits aren't the be-all, end-all; it's a great matchup any way you cut it. Still, it'd make sense if we see a repeat of last week's Colts performance here — meaning McConkey, Allen and Quentin Johnston see more opportunities than the involved TE. Here's to hoping this plus spot gets Allen going again–he's had some HUGE performances against Mike Tomlin and company over the years:
Bears WR Rome Odunze (26% TPRR vs. man, 19% vs. zone) vs. Giants: It's been a ROUGH last four weeks for Odunze following his blistering start to the season. Last week's goose-egg against the Bengals was bad enough to make his Dad mad online. That said: Odunze has eaten vs. man coverage all season long, and only the Lions and Broncos have utilized more of it through nine weeks. Note that Odunze hung big-time performances on the Ravens (7-114-0) and Lions (7-128-2) this season AKA two of the league's top-six most man-heavy defenses. I LOVE the chances of Odunze finding his groove in this potential eruption spot.
Commanders WR Jaylin Lane (23% TPRR vs. man, 12% vs. zone) vs. Lions: This is certainly a deeper pull than the other ones, but hey, Lane has indeed seen his opportunities ramp up against man coverage, and a near full-time role should continue to be on the table with Terry McLaurin (quad) unlikely to suit up this week. Lane leads the Commanders in yards per route run (2.64) vs. man and has the sort of provocative one-hitter-quitter big-play ability to make the most out of limited overall targets. It'd be a lot cooler if Jayden Daniels was under center instead of Marcus Mariota, although the veteran has sported better marks in plenty of passing efficiency measures (completion rate, yards per attempt, QBR) this season.

Workhorse alert: 13 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 9: Bijan Robinson (96%), Chase Brown (95%), De'Von Achane (92%), Ashton Jeanty (90%), Javonte Williams (88%), Christian McCaffrey (86%), Kareem Hunt (81%), Jonathan Taylor (78%), TreVeyon Henderson (75%), James Cook (75%), Rico Dowdle (74%), Kyle Monangai (74%), and Kimani Vidal (72%). All non-bye participants should be auto starts in pretty much fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the only two real exceptions being Henderson (not exactly dominating touches and tough matchup vs. pass-funnel Bucs) and Vidal (banged-up offensive line and lost some of the backfield rush share last week). Even then, I typically let a workhorse RB's volume win as the tiebreaker over WR3 types in close start/sit decisions.
Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include: Josh Jacobs (RB4 in PPR points per game this season), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB7), Saquon Barkley (RB10), Kyren Williams (RB13), Jaylen Warren (RB17), Breece Hall (RB18), Quinshon Judkins (RB19), Travis Etienne (RB20, and man was he unlucky last week), and Derrick Henry (RB21, but winter is coming).
Those damn injury gods: Unfortunately, there are a handful of injuries worth monitoring among backs who we would otherwise feel great about:
Muddled committees are so lame: And the Cardinals, Texans, Titans, Commanders, Seahawks, and Giants insist on deploying just that. None of the involved backs crack my top 24 and shouldn't be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist. The result of the Giants is particularly annoying considering Tyrone Tracy largely dominated usage in Week 8 as well as in 2024. He's not a must-start option for the time being.

TD dependent early-down grinders: Feature David Montgomery and JK Dobbins, who simply don't have a high enough touch floor to be overly relied on during any given week. That said: Both the Lions (implied for 29 points, 2nd) and Broncos (25.8, 7th) are expected to be among the week's highest-scoring offenses, so this profiles as the sort of week where both backs could make the most out of their 15-ish touches.
Things aren't going so great down by the Bayou: It's been a rough 2025 for Alvin Kamara, who is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per reception this season. The result is just 9.2 PPR points per game (RB36). Quite a far cry from last year's RB5 finish. Hopefully Tyler Shough gets the offense grooving and better days are ahead; just realize Kamara isn't someone who should be in starting fantasy lineups if you can help it.
The Joker: RJ Harvey still isn't getting enough usage to shoot up the fantasy ranks, but the rookie has emerged as a dangerous pass-catcher inside this ever-well-schemed Sean Payton attack. There's serious high-end handcuff upside here and we shouldn't discount the possibility for more work to emerge down the stretch.
The below chart answers just that!

The Eagles and Commanders are the obvious outliers here. It's tough to see the latter squad's down-to-down efficiency improving too much without the services of Jayden Daniels (elbow), but maybe the bye week did Jalen Hurts and company some good.
After all: This has pretty easily been the worst version of the Eagles in terms of overall offensive success rate since Hurts took over as the starter in 2021.
Here's to hoping Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are healthy coming out of the team's bye, otherwise it might be on DeVonta Smith to (continue) picking up the slack. Shoutout to Smith for playing the best football of his career through nine weeks: He's ESPN's and PFF's fifth- and 10th-highest graded WR overall.
The biggest takeaway from last week was pretty awesome so I'll repeat it:
Of course, we got some work to do in the meantime, so I'd recommend the following defenses for those getting down and dirty in the streamer streets. The following groups were all available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday:
The Panthers (4%) and Saints (2%) would be the next best bets thanks to matchups against … each other! Still, I have much less confidence in their real-life ability. If worse comes to worse, give me the Panthers, but man, neither have been anything to write home about this season when it comes to wrecking havoc out there.
Defenses with a sub-30% havoc rate:
I'll be publishing an early rankings column midday Monday throughout the season that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 10 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the three biggest questions and answers I had.
*Law and Order Music*
These are their stories.
Did JJ McCarthy actually ball out in Week 9?
Kind of! Sure, nobody will be writing fables about this performance in 10 years (other than maybe Thor Nystrom), but the second-year signal-caller made a handful of truly impressive throws in just his third-career start.
Of course, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt against this injury-riddled Lions secondary isn't exactly an impressive feat (read: it's not good); just realize McCarthy at least flashed the ability to function as a decent NFL QB–which is quite the improvement from some of the discourse going around following his mostly disastrous first eight quarters to the season.
Perhaps most intriguing for fantasy purposes: McCarthy has continued to show a penchant for running the damn ball. Overall, he's posted 2-25-1, 5-25-0, and 9-12-1 rushing lines, emerging as a quality threat to pick up yards as a scrambler when needed.
As discussed on the Sunday night recap edition of THE Fantasy Life Show, I came away more optimistic about the Vikings passing game moving forward, while Dwain "The Rock" McFarland did not. So yeah: Choose your fighter!
The good news either way: McCarthy and company have back-to-back quality on-paper matchups against the Ravens (24th in EPA allowed per dropback) and Bears (22nd) on deck. Nobody has a better rest-of-season schedule at the position. Here's to hoping better counting numbers are accordingly ahead for all parties involved; for now McCarthy (my QB18) is still more of a superflex/bye week filler option than anything fantasy managers should be getting too excited about.
Who was *this* close to having a much bigger Week 9?
I've been tracking when players get tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive every week for roughly the last five years or so. I truly can't recall a slate of games featuring this many occurrences.
Players tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive:
That's right: ETN could have realistically had three TDs on Sunday. Nobody has been tackled at the one-yard line on five separate occasions in one game since 2017!
That said: Don't let Etienne's unfortunate lack of success around the goal line distract from the fact that the Jaguars RB1 looked damn good coming out of the team's Week 8 bye:
Many fantasy football nerds and virgins were hoping rookie Bhayshul Tuten would experience a post-bye rookie bump of sorts, but that simply wasn't the case. Don't get it twisted: Tuten maintains sky-high handcuff upside and remains an intriguing size/speed specimen, but I'd be VERY surprised at this point of a backfield takeover ever happening without an injury.
… yeah!
And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Jonathan Taylor to have a big game, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (usually in the form of my weekly mismatch manifesto charts).
1. Zay Flowers finally booms, hangs 8-123-1 on the Vikings. The man couldn't be more overdue for a TD (54 straight targets without a receiving score), and the return of Lamar Jackson certainly has this passing attack looking dangerous once again. This Brian Flores-led defense has started to crack, surrendering some big-time performances to DeVonta Smith (9-183-1), AJ Brown (4-121-2), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-97-0), Sam LaPorta (6-97-1), Ladd McConkey (6-88-1), Oronde Gadsden (5-77-1), and Jameson Williams (4-66-1) over the last three weeks alone!
2. Kyle Monangai stays hot, posts top-five finish without D'Andre Swift OR top-24 with. The rookie's usage was already trending up even before Swift got hurt. Obviously the continued absence of Swift could result in another BOOM for Monangai, but don't discount this Bears rush offense (3rd in EPA per rush since returning from their Week 5 bye!) being good enough to produce *two* high-end performances against the Giants' league-worst defense in EPA allowed per rush.
3. Khalil Shakir torches the Dolphins for 8-110-1. Shakir's last four matchups with the Dolphins have produced 6-106-0, 5-54-0, 6-50-0, and 4-45-1 receiving lines. Their banged-up/bad secondary hasn't had many answers all season long; I like Shakir's chances of making the most out of his high-percentage low-aDOT targets and racking up YAC against the league's third-worst defense in terms of total missed tackles this season.
Last week: Caleb Williams didn't quite throw for 300 yards, but he had 355 total yards and four TDs so we'll call it a win! … Kyren Williams (RB8) easily posted top-24 numbers, but Blake Corum (RB33) did not. … Josh Downs was good (6-57-1), but not quite as good as my 8-103-1 prediction. … As always: We'll watch the film and get better.
Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 10 and beyond!
