Super Bowl 60 PrizePicks Selections: Will Drake Maye and Sam Darnold Go Higher or Lower?

Using the preseason odds, this is the least likely Super Bowl matchup in 50 years, which is a testament to the unpredictability of the NFL. I know some people are disappointed to see the Patriots back in the big game so soon, but on paper this is an interesting matchup, and the 45.5 point game total is higher than I would have guessed. I am skeptical that the game will go over that total, but I also respect the oddsmakers and recognize that there is a path to a fun offensive game, even if I don't think that is the most likely outcome.

In this article, I'll be highlighting my favorite selections on PrizePicks and building some entries that I like. Whether or not you decide to tail my picks, there is some general advice you should always keep in mind when playing on sites like PrizePicks.

Your picks should tell a story. Since this is a single game, every player's outcome has some correlation (positive or negative) to the outcomes of other players. Each rush attempt that Kenneth Walker gets is another play that goes by without a Sam Darnold pass attempt. Every field goal attempt, punt, or turnover is a drive that didn't end in a touchdown. Any picks within the same entry should make sense together, which means you generally want to avoid picks that have a strong negative correlation to one another.
Don't be afraid to pick lowers. Sure, they aren't as fun to cheer for as highers, but they are often the smarter choice. That is especially true in a big game like this where the players and coaches might be more conservative than normal. Add in the fact that a lot of casual money might push some lines higher than they should be and it is easy to see why you need to consider going lower on some of your picks, particularly if you are making multiple entries.
Don't confuse what you want to happen with what is likely to happen. Having a team or player you want to back is fine, but don't be so focused on one particular outcome that you can't see other possibilities.
Mind the line movement. With all the attention and action that the Super Bowl draws, lines are likely to move all the way up until game time on Sunday. If you're consuming analysis from Fantasy Life or elsewhere, be sure to pay just as much attention to what the line is as what the pick is.
Take full advantage of the promos. For a big event like the Super Bowl, sites like PrizePicks always have promos. Whether that is a free pick or a sign-up bonus, make sure that you take advantage of these offers in order to give yourself the best chance of coming out ahead on Super Bowl Sunday.

My general philosophy on big-game props is to lean toward lowers, and that is especially true this year with two QBs who are making their first Super Bowl starts. We also have two teams who have leaned heavily on the defenses to make it this far. I expect relatively conservative game plans, especially in the first half.

Before I dive into my favorite picks for the Super Bowl, it is just as important to spend a minute on the markets I have no interest in. I almost never make picks on one-way markets. In my opinion it is a major red flag if you don't have the option to select higher or lower.

On PrizePicks this primarily shows up in the lines where you pick players to reach a certain stat line in all four quarters or both halves. At the time of writing, they have options for quarters with 5+ receiving yards, quarters with 30+ pass yards, halves with 25+ rush yards, halves with 25+ receiving yards and halves with 100+ passing yards. These lines seem easier to hit than they are and the fact that you can only pick highers suggests that they aren't priced in line with their probability of happening.

With that out of the way, let's dive into my favorite picks.

Super Bowl 60 PrizePicks Targets

The Projections Special

Let's get started with some smart picks before we get into the more galaxy brain options that I like later on. For this entry, I simply compared the lines on Prize Picks to our projections on Fantasy Life and picked the ones where there is the biggest edge.

The Fantasy Life props tool has Drake Maye lower rushing yards as one of the lines with the biggest edge across multiple sites as our projections have him for only 28.6 rushing yards. Walker has stepped into a workhorse role with Zach Charbonnet out, and we expect that to continue in the Super Bowl. George Holani should get some work as the RB2, but unless this game turns into a blowout his workload should be relatively limited. The Fantasy Life projections have him at 9 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards so the line of 25.5 offer plenty of value to take the lower.

Jake Bobo isn't a big part of the Seattle offense, but he has a specific role and has a catch in each of Seattle's last two games. With the defensive attention that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is likely to draw, Seattle will need at least one ancillary pass catcher to step up. I think we see at least one designed play for Bobo and all we need is one target to hit his line.

Lastly, Rhamondre Stevenson has consolidated the rushing attempts in the New England backfield recently. He notched season highs with a 94% snap share and 78% rush attempt share in the AFC Championship game. He should get plenty of work in the Super Bowl and our projections have him for 58.9 rushing yards, so this line of 48.5 rushing yards is pretty compelling.

The Hater Bowl

With two strong defenses in this game, there is dud potential. It won't make for fun viewing, but if this game ends up in a low-scoring defensive struggle, we might as well make some money off of it.

My favorite selections for this scenario make a simple three-pick entry with the lower on 450.5 combined passing yards for Maye and Sam Darnold, less than 19.5 JSN fantasy points and more than 3.5 punts for Michael Dickson.

This plays into the idea of a run-heavy game plan for both teams and a conservative game plan from Seattle that aims to lean on the defense to win this one.

The Quick Winner

As I mentioned in the intro, I expect both teams to ease into this game on offense. If you agree with that idea, there are multiple ways to play that. On PrizePicks, I am interested in the lines on yardage of the first catch, completion and rush attempts for certain players. The nice thing with this entry is that we will know whether it hits or not early in the game.

With a second-year QB making his first Super Bowl start I expect Josh McDaniels to try to get Maye an easy completion on their first drive. I think that could be a quick screen or a hitch route that goes for 3-5 yards. There's a high probability that pass goes to Stefon Diggs, so I like pairing less than 7.5 yards on the first completion for Maye and catch for Diggs. Even if that first completion doesn't go to Diggs, he has had an aDOT of 6.0 yards or less in two of New England's last three games, so there's still a decent shot they could each go lower on separate plays.

To round out this entry I am adding in more than 20.5 rushing yards on Walker's first five rush attempts. This is essentially relying on one big run for Walker early in the game, which I think Seattle is capable of scheming up.

All Touchdowns

This is one of the simplest and most fun entries to make, but it is extremely important to not get carried away with the number of players in a TD-scorer entry. I think the sweet spot is two to three TD scorers, and I wouldn't go higher than four.

Despite this being one of the most fun entries to make, it was the one I spent the most time going back and forth on. I was really tempted by a Maye rushing TD as well as the AJ Barner rushing or receiving TD due to his role on the tush push, but I also really wanted to play a TD for both of the lead RBs.

This is an entry where it is easy to get too fancy, so I decided that playing a rushing or receiving TD for both Walker and Stevenson was what I wanted most. Beyond that, I wanted one more pick, preferably a 'demon' that enhances the payout multiplier. I was in-between Boutte and Barner, and we have both players projected for 0.3 TDs so I went with the one that resulted in the higher payout. With Barner in place of Boutte this entry would pay 8.5x so I am rolling with New England's deep threat for a 9.75x payout.

Fantasy Points

One of my favorite things about size like PrizePicks is that they offer fantasy points markets, rather than just individual statistical categories. For traditional fantasy football players who only dabble in other types of fantasy games, this is the easiest market to play in. Just be sure to keep in mind the full-point PPR scoring system.

The lower on 19 fantasy points for Maye and more than 12.5 fantasy points for Rhamondre Stevenson are both good plays according to the Fantasy Life projections and are somewhat correlated with one another. Stevenson has also been playing a bigger role in the passing game recently with 17 targets in his last five games, and adding a couple catches in full PPR scoring will really help with hitting this number.

On the Seattle side, I mentioned liking Barner as a potential TD scorer, but he could also hit 7 fantasy points just racking up catches in full PPR scoring. If New England focuses on taking away JSN like I expect them to, I could see Darnold checking down to Barner on a regular basis so I like pairing those two picks together.

The Longshot

Time to have some fun with our last entry. In the wise words of cooterdoodle, "scared money don't make money." As you've seen throughout this article, I generally like to limit the number of things I have to get right, which usually results in no more than four picks per entry. For this one, we're going to live a little and go with the maximum six picks to give us some real upside on Sunday.

To kick things off I'm going back to one of our highest projected edge plays with Holani less than 25.5 scrimmage yards. After that I added on a slight variation of the Diggs short early targets thesis with less than 18.5 yards on his first two receptions. I talked about Diggs' low aDOT earlier, and this gives us a little bit of breathing room if he happens to add some yards after the catch on one of his first two receptions.

I wanted to get Barner more than 0.5 rush attempts in one of these entries so I included that one here with the idea that Seattle will run the tush push in at least one short-yardage situation. The rushing + receiving TD combo for Maye and Darnold is a nice pick because it increases the payout multiplier and both QBs are mobile enough to scramble for one in the red zone.

Next up I added higher than 3.5 field goals for the two kickers with the idea that these coaching staffs are going to be happy to take points early in this game. It also helps that the weather is supposed to be excellent so there are no real concerns for two of the best kickers from this season to be able to convert their opportunities into points.

Lastly, while I do expect relatively conservative game plans early in this game, I do also expect New England to take some calculated deep shots. Maye has been one of the best deep passers all year and Kyle Williams emerged as a viable deep threat over the second half of the season. His overall route participation has been hurt by the return of Mack Hollins, but with two weeks to prepare for this game I think both offenses will have more player-specific calls in the playbook than normal and Williams has enough speed that he can get loose on a deep pass from Maye at least once.

This entry is called the longshot for a reason, but a cool 57x payout sure would be a fun way to end the season.