Week 14 RB Rankings: Upgrade James Cook and Chase Brown in High-Scoring Bills-Bengals Game
Matthew Freedman has presented his Week 14 running back rankings for fantasy football, highlighting upgrades for James Cook, Chase Brown and others.
It's Week 14.
For many people, this week will determine whether they make the playoffs and get a shot at a fantasy championship or spend Christmas with their families complaining about the emptiness of existence.
Now's the time to lock in.
Let's get into the Week 14 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 14 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 14 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 14 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football
Week 14 Matchup Upgrades: James Cook vs. Bengals & Chase Brown vs. Bills
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Bills are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.
- Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+7.9)
- Bills: No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.052) and defensive rush DVOA (5.5%)
Bang a gong.
James Cook (Bills) vs. Bengals: The Bills offense has been inconsistent all year, but Cook has been the one constant producer in the unit. In six games since the Week 7 bye, he has 838 yards and 4 TDs on 124 carries and 15 targets. He should see sustained work as a 6.0-point home favorite, and the Bengals could once again be without first-team All-Pro EDGE Trey Hendrickson (hip).
Chase Brown (Bengals) at Bills: Even with the return of No. 2 RB Samaje Perine, Brown had 113 yards on 15 carries and 7 targets last week. With QB Joe Burrow once again facilitating the offense, Brown should have an elevated weekly floor moving forward, and the Bills could be without EDGE Joey Bosa (hamstring) and LB Terrel Bernard (elbow) in the front seven.
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Week 14 Scoring Upgrades: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Cowboys & Kyren Williams vs. Cardinals
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."
This week the Rams are No. 2 in implied team total (28.5 points) and Lions are No. 3 (28.25).
Upgrade warranted.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Cowboys: Although he didn't do much last week (86 scoreless yards), Gibbs still has 668 yards and 6 TDs on 62 carries, 28 targets and an elite 94 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and he could earn an expanded workload without WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and Kalif Raymond (ankle) and TEs Sam LaPorta (back, IR) and Brock Wright (back). The Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+7.58, per NFElo), and at home with QB Jared Goff they're 27-15-1 ATS (22.5%, per Action Network).
Blake Corum (Rams) at Cardinals: This is more or less a reminder that Corum is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy. If No. 1 RB Kyren Williams were to suffer an injury, Corum—even in Guillotine Leagues—would be an immediate high-end fantasy starter. He should be added on waivers where available. Since the Week 8 bye, Corum actually has more of the team's goal-line carries than Williams (56% vs. 44%).
Week 14 Home Favorite Upgrades: Bucky Irving vs. Saints & Derrick Henry vs. Steelers
In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.
Here are two such RBs who stand out.
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs. Saints: In his return to action last week, Irving led the Bucs backfield with 81 yards and a TD on 17 carries and 2 targets. For the season, that now gives him 511 yards and 3 TDs in five games. As big 8.5-point favorites, the Bucs could give Irving 20+ opportunities.
Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Steelers: In six games since the Week 8 bye, Henry has 590 yards and 6 TDs on 109 carries and 10 targets. Henry should be fresh with three extra days of rest off the Thanksgiving game last week, the Steelers are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.003), and they might be without DT Derrick Harmon (knee) and LB Patrick Queen (hip).
Week 14 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Josh Jacobs vs. Bears & Kyle Monangai vs. Packers
Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Bears: Jacobs should benefit with the three extra days of rest coming off the Thanksgiving game, and in his return to action last week he had 91 yards on 17 carries and a target. With HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers at home are 36-23 ATS (17.1% ROI), and the Bears might be thin in the front seven without EDGEs Dayo Odeyingbo (Achilles, IR) and Dominique Robinson (concussion) and LBs Tremaine Edmunds (groin, IR), T.J. Edwards (hand), Noah Sewell (elbow) and Ruben Hyppolite (shoulder). Although the game total is just 44.5 points, I have the over projected as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
Kyle Monangai (Bears) at Packers: Following his backfield-altering 198-yard performance in Week 9 as an injury fill-in, Monangai has forced starter D'Andre Swift into a full-blown timeshare with 243 yards and four TDs on 53 carries and three targets over the past four games. Last week specifically he popped off for 19 fantasy points. The Packers could be more vulnerable than usual against the run if they're without EDGE Lukas Van Ness (foot), DTs Devonte Wyatt (ankle) and Karl Brooks (ankle), and LB Quay Walker (neck).
Week 14 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Devin Neal vs. Buccaneers & Jordan Mason vs. Commanders
Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Devin Neal (Saints) at Buccaneers: The matchup is tough, but Neal might be a necessary option with four teams on bye, and last week without No. 1 RB Alvin Kamara (knee) he had an 81% snap rate, which he converted into a nice-ish 69 yards on 14 carries and 3 targets. No guarantees on his production, but at least you know he's gonna get opportunities.
Jordan Mason (Vikings) vs. Commanders: No. 1 RB Aaron Jones (shoulder) exited last week early, which opens the door for Mason to reassume control of the Vikings backfield. In his four games without Jones in Weeks 3-7, Mason had 301 yards and 4 TDs on 60 carries and 7 targets. The Commanders are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.2).
Notes for my Week 14 RB Rankings
Byes: This week, all Patriots, 49ers, Panthers and Giants are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a longtime profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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