Week 16 TE Rankings: Time to Elevate Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts
Matthew Freedman produced his Week 16 RB fantasy football rankings and featured his favorite players this week, including Dallas Goedert and Kyle Pitts.
It's Week 16.
If you're really looking for an intro to a fantasy article at this point of the year, you have problems that go beyond who to start.
Let's get into the Week 16 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series and my Week 16 fantasy rankings, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 16 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 16 Tight End Rankings
ATL IND ARI CIN BUF HOU WAS SEA TEN LV GB
Week 16 Matchup Upgrades: Dallas Goedert vs. Bengals & Darren Waller vs. Bengals
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Bengals and Jets are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.
- Commanders: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (23.6%)
- Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+8.3)
Bang a gong.
Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Commanders: Like most TEs, Goedert has been inconsistent this year, but over the past two weeks he has 14-148-2 receiving on 17 targets, and for the season he has 9 TDs. I definitely wouldn't start him in Guillotine Leagues, but I like his matchup against SS Will Harris, who has a subpar 49.1 coverage grade (per PFF).
Darren Waller (Dolphins) vs. Bengals: Waller popped for 7 catches, 66 yards and a pair of scores against the Steelers on Monday Night Football in Week 15, so I’m high on Waller. The Bengals have been historically bad against TEs this year, and with Tagovailoa the Dolphins at home are 24-15 ATS (17.1% ROI, per Action Network).
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Week 16 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Jake Ferguson vs. Chargers & Juwan Johnson vs. Jets
Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.
Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Chargers: Ferguson disappointed last week (2-16-0 receiving, 4 targets), and since the Week 10 bye he has done relatively little (21-186-1 receiving, 28 targets), but this week his luck might change—the Chargers are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (17.6), and SS Elijah Molden (hamstring) and FS R.J. Mickens (shoulder) might be out.
Juwan Johnson (Saints) vs. Jets: Since the Saints traded former No. 2 WR Rashid Shaheed in Week 10, Johnson has a viable 23-245-1 receiving on 28 targets, and he might be more productive this week if WR Devaughn Vele (shoulder) is out. For the Jets, SS Tony Adams (groin) and No. 3 S Isaiah Oliver (knee) both exited last game early.
Week 16 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Kyle Pitts vs. Cardinals & Harold Fannin vs. Bills
Here are a few TEs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.
Kyle Pitts (Falcons) at Cardinals: No. 1 WR Drake London (knee) has missed the past three weeks, and in his absence Pitts has played like a superstar (26-363-3 receiving on 35 targets with a 93 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). He's the No. 3 TE in WOPR (49%), and the Cardinals might be without FS Jalen Thompson (hamstring) and No. 3 S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (ankle).
You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Harold Fannin (Browns) vs. Bills: TE David Njoku (knee) exited Week 14 early and then missed Week 15, which resulted in 15-162-1 receiving on 25 targets (plus a two-yard rush) in two games for Fannin. As heavy 10-point home dogs, the Browns will likely have a pass-heavy game script.
Colston Loveland (Bears) vs. Packers: WRs Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle) are uncertain, and the Packers could be without FS Evan Williams (knee)—not to mention EDGE Micah Parsons (knee) is out for the season. Loveland has held steady with a respectable 18% target share over the past month and is worth a waiver wire add.
Notes For My Week 16 TE Rankings
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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