Welcome to the 2026 Dynasty Fantasy Football Season

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Pop-Tarts:

Don’t cry because the Super Bowl’s over, smile because it’s dynasty season! Every Friday during the “non-point-scoring season,” our newsletter will focus on the most wonderful fantasy format of all. (With due respect to our resident best ball buffs and Guillotine devotees.)

Never played in a dynasty league before? Well if you’re reading our newsletter in mid-February, you’re probably the type who would love it. Get some friends and family together—ones you’ll still be able to tolerate a few years down the road—and get a league going.

Then you can join me in taking advantage of some very strange narratives that are floating around the dynasty streets.

Debunking Dynasty Fantasy Football Narratives

Justin Jefferson is not QB-proof. I recently talked about this overreaction on the Trade Addicts podcast. Jefferson averaged fewer than 85 yards per game for the first time in his six-year career and suddenly the sky is falling?

Just because the guy had to endure something called a Max Brosmer and took a little time to gel with J.J. McCarthy doesn’t mean he should fall outside the top tier of receivers. The best time to trade for Jefferson was yesterday. The second best time is today.

Kyler Murray is burnt toast. Whether you believe Murray’s “soft benching” was related to his performance or his foot injury, it was a rough year. But DID YOU KNOW Murray is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL to average 230+ passing yards and 35+ rushing yards per game over their career? The other is Josh Allen.

He’s unlikely to return to Arizona, but if the Cardinals are willing to pay down a portion of his contract the 28-year-old QB could land with the Falcons, Browns, Dolphins, Vikings, Jets, Steelers, or the Raiders if they don’t opt to draft Fernando Mendoza. Murray will get another chance. Strike while he’s sitting at QB27 on KTC.

Sending a bunch of trade offers in February is psychotic behavior. This one just hurts. Apparently some folks think dynasty leagues should take a breather?

Not me. My oldest dynasty league turns seven years old this offseason. (They grow up so fast!) And some of the very best trades in that league happened on a cold February night. So yeah, you can miss me with your trade hiatuses!

ARE YOU BUYING THESE BUSTS IN 2026?

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LEARN MORE

A New Metric Helps Measure Future WR Success

If there’s one thing we know about the Rookie Super Model, it’s that Dwain McFarland is constantly looking for ways to improve upon it. He’s taken a look at different data points to see if they might help further show the path to predicting future NFL success.

Unfortunately, Dwain has found that most stats don’t measure up, so he doesn’t ultimately include them in the model. But there is a recent metric that has shown value and is getting plenty of monitoring when it comes to a certain position:

For wide receivers, there is one factor I have been monitoring for two years now but haven't felt we have enough data to call one way or the other: career contested-target rate (CCTR).

Pro Football Focus (PFF) started tracking contested targets for collegiate players in 2017. That means we didn't have a full career view of most college football players in the database until the completion of the 2020 season. While the sample is still small, we now have five draft classes (2021 through 2025) that allow us to backtest the CCTR against their production in an NFL season.

Why is CCTR potentially a predictor of which wideouts will succeed on the NFL field? There is a growing sample size and players who have actually broken through like they have risen over defenders to make a tough grab. There are some surprises in there. ⤵️

ONE OF THE 2025 BREAKOUTS IS A CCTR STAR

NFL Draft 2026: Top 150 Big Board

It’s NFL Draft SZN, people! Are you not entertained? Gladiator references aside, we’re plenty fired up for the regular content that we’ll be providing you in the coming days, weeks and months leading up to that three-day fiesta taking place in Pittsburgh in late April. One piece in particular is Matthew Freedman’s latest Top 150 Big Board.

Big Boards are different from mock drafts in that they are a straight evaluation and ranking on talent. There are no looking at what the Saints need at pick No. 8 and directing a player there. This is straight ranking, so the eighth player in a mock may be lower or higher on a Big Board. There are several players on here who could be breakouts in the 2026 season. ⤵️

WHO IS NO. 1?

Brandon Aiyuk Offseason Dynasty Profile

The rise and fall of Brandon Aiyuk. It’s almost heartbreaking to run down the tale. First-round pick in 2020 out of Arizona State. Uneven rookie year where he was in and out of the doghouse, followed by getting his foothold in Year 2. The next two years the arrow pointed up, culminating in a 75-1,342-7 season where he was second-team All-Pro.

Then came a protracted contract negotiation that got resolved just before the 2024 season, during which he suffered a torn ACL after seven games. Now he’s heading away from the Bay Area, after GM John Lynch all but said he’d be released.

New start with a new team, but no football for almost two years by the time the 2026 season starts. How do we deal with that in Dynasty? Chris Allen and Jake Trowbridge finish their six-part series of Dynasty profiles on pivotal players. ICYMI, here are the other five:

For Chris and Jake’s overview on Aiyuk, here you go.⤵️

THE COMP TO ANOTHER STAR WR IS SPOT ON

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

☝️ From DII to the SEC to College Football Playoff semifinals, Trinidad Chambliss was granted one more year at Ole Miss.

📊 Quinshon Judkins now a top-12 RB? Our latest Dynasty Rankings.

👀 Can we get Drake London a little pass-catching help? Atlanta Falcons team needs.

🤝 Get to know the incoming rookies. Never too early for a dynasty mock draft!

🏈 A former head coach will assist Klint Kubiak in Las Vegas. Can’t hurt.

🏃🏽‍♂️ Dynasty Reddit wants to know: When should you trade away a mobile QB?

🌽 The Des Moines Bears?? I'm out unless they use Marcas Grant’s idea.

❤️ Jeremiyah Love could be in some great rookie company after the draft. Good landing spot, please.