Divisional Round Guilloteenie Strategy: Bid Aggressively on James Cook and Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Welcome to the Divisional Round, Guillotine Leaguers! Congratulations on surviving the blade through Wild Card Weekend. Did you know they don’t call it Super Wild Card Weekend anymore? I just found that out this past week. The No-Fun-League strikes again.

You know what is fun? Winning your Playoff Guilloteenie. We’re here to help you survive the Divisional Round this weekend. Below, we’ll provide strategy advice for certain players and/or situations, both for established Guilloteenies or for those spinning up new ones this week. That’s right! We’re still starting up fresh leagues for you to win; check them out here.

Playoff Guillotine Leagues™️ Rankings—Risers and Fallers for the Divisional Round

RISER: CHI TE Colston Loveland

Take a bow, young man! Here are some fun Colston Loveland stats to back up what we all witnessed with our own eyeballs last Saturday night:

Loveland is the second rookie tight end since 1970 to have a 100-plus yard playoff game. The other was Keith Jackson in 1988, who tallied 142 receiving yards. It’s been 38 years.
There have been two tight ends aged 22 or younger in NFL history with at least 10 targets and 130 yards in a playoff game: Rob Gronkowski and Colston Loveland.
Colston Loveland’s 137 receiving yards in his first playoff game are more than Travis Kelce has ever posted in a playoff game.

Loveland is not just a TE1; he is THE TE1 in this format so long as the Bears are alive. Everything I wrote about George Kittle last week applies to Loveland moving forward. If you’re drafting today, Loveland should be the first player taken once Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are off the board.

If Loveland somehow hit Guillotine Leagues™️ waivers in your league, he provides a fascinating strategic case study for this format. With Kittle down, Loveland’s positional advantage over the rest of the TE position is wider than Lake Michigan, so he’s worth a hefty bid. However, if the Bears get knocked out this week, you’ve just sunk your FAAB into a one-week rental. I think he’s worth the risk, but only in the right context. If your team dominated last round & your only hole is at TE, go for Loveland. If you’re treading water at multiple spots, an all-in approach on one player won’t help in both the short and long term.

RISERS: Broncos and Seahawks

Welcome back to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton, and everyone’s least favorite fantasy backfield: Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. In fresh Guilloteenies, you can draft these players without hesitation. JSN is a surefire first-rounder. Harvey is a second or third-rounder. Sutton and the Seattle backfield should be Round 4 targets.

FALLER: HOU WR Nico Collins

We almost made it through Wild Card Weekend unscathed on the injury front. Unfortunately, Nico Collins was carted off in the third quarter with his second concussion of the season. Considering the short week, it’s unlikely Collins plays on Sunday. In fresh drafts, he probably is not worth a pick. Even if he goes, he’ll face off with Christian Gonzalez, who’s fresh off a lockdown game against the Chargers. You’re better off backfilling that spot with Jayden Higgins and trying to scoop Collins off the waiver wire if the Texans advance, even if you currently own Collins.

FALLERS: 49ers Not Named Christian McCaffrey

Given how the Divisional Round matchups shook out, the 49ers got the toughest draw, and Vegas agrees. They are 7.5-point road underdogs in Seattle; the next largest spread is Chicago as 4-point home underdogs. The Niners are the least likely team to win by a good margin, so their players are likely only going to be useful this week. Plus, we saw how tough their matchup was just two weeks ago; Seattle nearly blanked the Niners in Week 18, including a rare CMC dud. McCaffrey should obviously still be drafted highly, but save your FAAB if you’re a McCaffrey owner, because you may need a replacement soon. The only other Niners worth a pick are Jake Tonges (if you prefer him over AJ Barner or Colby Parkinson) and Jauan Jennings.

Divisional Round Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Leaky Boat or a Sinking Ship?

If you survived, but lost several players due to injury or elimination, your goal should be to solve the problem with several players to cover your roster this week and onward. Look for cheaper players on teams that are heavily favored to advance: Seahawks and Rams.

If you survived and only lost one player due to injury or elimination, you can get aggressive with your FAAB and fill that hole with a superstar. Be wary of those on underdog teams, though.

The 10 Most-Chopped Players From Wild Card Weekend

Some things to note on the data you’ll see below:

Utilization Scores will be limited to the last five weeks only. This gives us a better picture of how the player is performing right now. This includes Wild Card Weekend.
Upcoming schedules will include the opponent’s Fantasy Boost to their respective position in parentheses per our DvP tool. We’ll only include one upcoming opponent, of course.
This list will only include players still alive. I’m not going to advise you to spend FAAB on George Kittle or Omarion Hampton.
There will not be any specific dollar amounts this week. Everyone has the same amount of FAAB, but not everyone has the same amount of players on their roster at the moment. So, I’ll be providing one of three general strategies:

Aggressive: You should look to outbid your leaguemates on this player.
Moderate: You should put a modest bid down, but nothing crazy.
Mild: It’s probably not worth spending FAAB on this player.

Since it’s still only Round 2, we’ll have a bit more Milds and Moderates than Aggressives. We want to have FAAB leftover for the Super Bowl.

10. HOU TE Dalton Schultz (14.8% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 71/100
Upcoming Opponent: @NE (+0.6)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry will share the field this weekend, and you could make a case for either of them as the TE2 behind Colston Loveland the rest of the way. I lean Henry, especially as the favorite in this game, but Schultz has a good case assuming Nico Collins misses this game. Schultz and Christian Kirk would be the only viable, non-rookie pass catchers upon whom C.J. Stroud can rely in this matchup. Schultz just isn’t a high-upside player, so he’s worth only a moderate bid at most.

9. CHI WR Luther Burden (15% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 60/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. LAR (+1.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: Rome Odunze returned from injury last week, which pushed Burden to fourth on the totem pole behind Odunze, DJ Moore and Loveland (how many times can I gush about Loveland in this column?). Burden’s big-play upside and the potential shootout-style game environment make him worth a moderate bid in desperation, but exercise caution.

8. SEA RB Kenneth Walker (16.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 58/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. SF (+2.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Wasn’t it nice to not have to worry about Kenneth Walker & Zach Charbonnet for a couple weeks? Well, they’re back to torture us. Fortunately, San Francisco is a positive matchup. Walker played well in the Week 18 matchup en route to double-digit fantasy points, even without a score. The Niners’ defense isn’t getting any healthier, so fire up Walker at will. The only thing holding me back from an aggressive bid is Charbonnet.

7. NE RB TreVeyon Henderson (19.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 49/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. HOU (-2.6)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: From one difficult backfield split to another. Henderson is a bit like Burden; they can both break off a long touchdown at any moment. However, Henderson’s game environment isn’t looking as rosy as Burden’s this week. The Texans shut down opposing passing and running games alike, so a big play is the only thing that can save you, and we don’t want to count on those from part-time players in this format.

6. LAR WR Davante Adams (19.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 74/100
Upcoming Opponent: @CHI (+5.0)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: I want to get aggressive with Adams, but I just can’t get there. He looked fine to me last week (I’m not a doctor), but the lack of production indicates a lingering issue with his hamstring. He’s got a lot going for him: good matchup in a game with a high point total and a potential MVP at quarterback. Still, I’ll need to see a big game and a Rams win before I get too aggressive with Adams.

5. NE WR Stefon Diggs (20.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 56/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. HOU (GOOD LUCK)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: Diggs has been masking his paltry Utilization Score with massive performances all season. Could that happen again this weekend? Absolutely, shoutout to Lady Variance. I’m just not going to bank on that against the Texans, even if this is a revenge game for Diggs. Houston’s defense has been a death machine all year, but they turned it up to 11 in Pittsburgh on Monday. Count me out.

4. NE QB Drake Maye (20.93% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Opponent: vs. HOU (LOL)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: See above. Maye struggled in his playoff debut against a solid Chargers defense. Enter the Texans, who are like if the Chargers all got turned into Deathclaws from Fallout. If you don’t have Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams on your team, it’s worth pursuing Maye considering the Patriots are still favored to advance, but just don’t go overboard.

3. HOU WR Nico Collins (21.7% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 61/100
Upcoming Opponent: @NE (+2.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: None
The Jakedown: As mentioned above, Collins likely won’t play this week and, as such, so he is not worth the risk of taking a zero. If the Texans advance, we’ll revisit bidding strategies for Collins next week, as I’m sure he’d end up on this list again.

2. SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (23.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 90/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. SF (+0.4)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: Shoutout to those of you who got aggressive in their drafts last week and put JSN on this list in the first place. Fortune favors the bold and if you got chopped, I’m sure you’ve already visited the lobby and re-upped. This matchup worked out great for JSN; he averaged 7.5 receptions for 104 yards against the 49ers this season, and he’s due for a score.

1. BUF RB James Cook (29.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 64/100
Upcoming Opponent: @DEN (-1.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: It’s been a few weeks since we’ve seen a big outing from Cook, but he’s still worth an aggressive bid as the next best option at RB behind CMC. The matchup isn’t pretty, but Buffalo could lean on the ground game more in a cold-weather game and with Patrick Surtain and Co. lurking on the back end. Cook should also be utilized as a receiver more often given the strength of the Denver secondary vs. the Buffalo receiver group.