Guillotine Leagues™️: Guilloteenie Waiver Wire Strategic Advice for Conference Championships

Welcome to Conference Championship Weekend, Guillotine Leaguers! Congratulations to those of you who have survived to this point and best of luck to those spinning up fresh Playoff Guilloteenies this week. That’s right! We’re still starting up fresh leagues for you to win; check them out here.

The NFC Championship features a rubber match between the No. 1-seeded Seahawks and the NFC West runner-up Rams. Both of the first two games were classics, and we expect much of the same for the threequel.

The AFC Championship features a rematch of the Conference Championship game 10 years ago. The Patriots bring an MVP-caliber quarterback in Drake Maye into Denver to face a top defense and big question mark at quarterback as Jarrett Stidham is making his first start of the season. I guess the NFL wanted to join the fun and throw it back to 2016 this week, too.

We’re here to help you navigate both of these games. Below, we’ll provide Guillotine Leagues™️ strategic advice for certain players and/or situations, both for established Guilloteenies or for those spinning up new ones this week.

Playoff Guilloteenie Ranking Risers and Fallers for the Conference Championships

RISER: SEA RB Kenneth Walker

After the way the 2025 season shook out, it’s fitting that Kenneth Walker would turn in the best fantasy performance of his career in the playoffs. After fantasy’s most maddening backfield lost half of its production once Zach Charbonnet left the game with a knee injury, Walker finished the game with 145 total yards on 6.6 yards per touch and added 3 scores. Charbonnet is out for the playoffs after tearing his ACL last week, so Walker is ranked accordingly as a top-5 option. Velus Jones may siphon some carries, but I doubt he gets the full Charbonnet workload. Monitor Seattle’s left tackle situation: Charles Cross left with a foot injury, and his backup Josh Jones was already ruled out prior to last week’s game. Undrafted rookie Amari Kight would start in their place, which would downgrade the Seattle backfield.

FALLER: Denver Broncos

Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury at the end of last week’s Broncos win. Stidham will start Sunday; Stidham has not attempted a pass in a meaningful NFL game in over two calendar years. As such, all Broncos players receive a rankings downgrade ahead of Sunday’s game, especially against a Patriots defense that has terrorized its first two opponents this postseason. RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton remain top-10 options based upon projected volume and the lack of alternatives, but their ceiling is capped by the presence of Stidham. Marvin Mims played a nice game last week, but will also be limited by Stidham. Ancillary Broncos players like Jaleel McLaughlin, Troy Franklin and Lil’Jordan Humphrey should not be considered at this point. Stidham himself is ranked a clear fourth out of four quarterback options, and thus should not be drafted nor started.

RISER: NE WR Kayshon Boutte

Kayshon Boutte put an exclamation mark on his breakout sophomore season last Sunday. Boutte posted 3-71-1 with the help of a spectacular one-handed touchdown grab against a smothering Houston secondary, leading all Patriots pass catchers with a 64 Utilization Score. New England has persistently rotated its receiving options to a frustrating degree this season, but Boutte’s touchdown upside is tremendous, so he’s a good option with so few alternatives.

FALLER: Tight Ends

With both George Kittle and Colston Loveland knocked out of the playoffs, the tight end position is bleak from a fantasy perspective. Hunter Henry is the clear top option, if that tells you anything. Colby Parkinson and AJ Barner round out the top 3. After them, there should be no other tight ends drafted. Henry is a top-15 overall option, but can be drafted higher if you want to set yourself apart from the inevitable Parksinon and Barner owners.

Bully tight end is a viable strategy in fresh drafts and existing leagues now. In fresh drafts, snag Henry early, then follow that up with one of Parkinson or Barner, leaving at least one opponent with a clear tier drop in projection. If any combination of Henry, Parkinson or Barner hit waivers in your existing league, you can use your FAAB to box your remaining opponents out of reliable production at a mandatory roster slot.

Conference Championship Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Self-Evaluation: Do You Have a Leaky Boat or a Sinking Ship?

If you survived, but lost several players due to injury or elimination, your goal should be to solve the problem with several players to cover your roster this week and the Super Bowl. Look for cheaper players on teams that are heavily favored to advance i.e. Patriots.

If you survived and lost only one or two players due to injury or elimination, you can get aggressive with your FAAB and fill that hole with superstars. Be wary of those on underdog teams, though.

The 10 Most-Chopped Players From the Divisional Round

Some things to note on the data you’ll see below:

Utilization Scores will be limited to the last five weeks only. This gives us a better picture of how the player is performing right now. This includes Wild Card Weekend (if applicable) and the Divisional Round.
Upcoming schedules will include the opponent’s Fantasy Boost to their respective position in parentheses per our DvP tool. We’ll include only one upcoming opponent, of course.
This list will include only players still alive. I’m not going to advise you to spend FAAB on Christian McCaffrey nor Josh Allen.
There will not be any specific dollar amounts this week; I’ll be providing one of three general strategies:

Aggressive: You should look to outbid your leaguemates on this player.
Moderate: You should put a modest bid down, but nothing crazy.
Mild: It’s probably not worth spending FAAB on this player.

With only one week remaining and options limited, we’ll have a bit more Aggressives and Moderates than Milds. It’s do-or-die time.

10. SEA TE AJ Barner (17.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 54/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. LAR (-0.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: See above for most of my tight end musings. Barner is a top-3 option, but that isn’t saying much. It’s worth noting that Barner posted 10 receptions for 70 yards on 11 targets in the first meeting with the Rams, and 4-49-1 in the second matchup.

9. DEN WR Courtland Sutton (19.2% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 72/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. NE (+2.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: The only Bronco on this list, Sutton didn’t have a catastrophically bad game, just the pedestrian game he can turn in occasionally. Still, there aren’t many 70+ Utilization players left, so he’s worth an aggressive bid even with Stidham at the helm, especially if you’re hurting at WR.

8. SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 83/100
Upcoming Opponent: vs. LAR (+1.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: Y’all know the drill. Go get JSN, even though he would have turned in a pitiful day without the score last week. He went for 9 receptions and 105 yards in the first matchup with the Rams, and followed it up with 8-96-1 in the rematch.

7. NE QB Drake Maye (19.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Opponent: @DEN (-2.3)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Being the only who that uses his legs consistently, Maye is the best fantasy quarterback remaining. Still, the advantage over Matthew Stafford isn’t tremendous, especially considering how Stafford played in Rams-Seahawks II. Denver and Seattle are both brutal matchups, but I give Maye the edge due to the rushing potential and likelihood to advance. He’s worth the upgrade if you have Darnold or lost your QB.

6. LAR WR Puka Nacua (21.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 97/100
Upcoming Opponent: @SEA (-3.3)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: It’s Puka Nacua. He put up 16-225-2 on the Seahawks a month ago. Run, don’t walk, to bid on him.

5. LAR RB Blake Corum (22.5% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 36/100
Upcoming Opponent: @SEA (-3.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Mild
The Jakedown: Last week, Corum posted his lowest Utilization Score since Week 12 and now faces the most difficult opponent for fantasy backfields. No thanks, unless you simply need a warm body to fill a roster spot and don’t have much FAAB left.

4. Matthew Stafford (24.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming Opponent: @SEA (-2.1)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: See Maye, Drake above. Stafford has put up good numbers against Seattle in games prior, but offers no rushing upside. He’s worth the upgrade if you don’t already have Maye.

3. TreVeyon Henderson (26.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 40/100
Upcoming Opponent: @DEN (-1.9)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Henderson has posted two of his lowest Utilization Scores since Week 9 (in complete games) in these playoffs. New England is leaning heavily upon Rhamondre Stevenson instead, meaning you need Henderson to rip off a big play to pay off. We’ve seen plenty of that from him, so there are certainly worse options if you’re desperate, but I would not feel good about starting him anymore.

2. Hunter Henry (27.64% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 71/100
Upcoming Opponent: @DEN (+1.3)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Aggressive
The Jakedown: Despite the stinker in a sloppy game against a generational defense, Henry is still worth acquiring at this point. Tight end is a wasteland beyond the top 3 options, and Henry finds himself as the clear No. 1 fantasy tight end left.

1. LAR WR Davante Adams (27.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 63/100
Upcoming Opponent: @SEA (-3.3)
Jake’s Recommended Bid Strategy: Moderate
The Jakedown: Adams missed the rematch with the Seahawks, but posted the most Davante Adams stat line ever in Round 1 with 1 catch for 1 yard and 1 touchdown on 1 target. Frankly, that may be all Adams can muster this time around, as it’s clear his hamstring isn’t 100%. Against this defense, Adams is only worth a moderate bid right now.