2026 NFL Mock Draft: Carnell Tate Leads Five WRs in the First Round

This week we get the Shrine and Senior Bowls, and the week after that, the Super Bowl.

Draft SZN is officially here.

And that means it's time to update my mock draft.

I'm not one to brag, but …

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.

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2026 NFL Mock Draft—Five WRs Go In The First Round

The 2026 NFL Draft order is set for the top 30 picks.

For the remaining two, I'm using a combination of postseason seeding, consensus odds to win the Super Bowl, and my own personal postseason projections.

For the Super Bowl, you can access my team projections in our Fantasy Life Game Models (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription).

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Pick	Team	Player	School	Position
1	LV	Fernando Mendoza	Indiana	QB
2	NYJ	Arvell Reese	Ohio State	EDGE
3	ARI	David Bailey	Texas Tech	EDGE
4	TEN	Rueben Bain	Miami	EDGE
5	NYG	Carnell Tate	Ohio State	WR
6	CLE	Francis Mauigoa	Miami	OT
7	WAS	Keldric Faulk	Auburn	EDGE
8	NO	Jeremiyah Love	Notre Dame	RB
9	KC	Cashius Howell	Texas A&M	EDGE
10	CIN	Caleb Downs	Ohio State	S
11	MIA	Jermod McCoy	Tennessee	CB
12	DAL	Mansoor Delane	LSU	CB
13	LAR	Avieon Terrell	Clemson	CB
14	BAL	Peter Woods	Clemson	DT
15	TB	Sonny Styles	Ohio State	LB
16	NYJ	Jordyn Tyson	Arizona State	WR
17	DET	Spencer Fano	Utah	OT
18	MIN	Brandon Cisse	South Carolina	CB
19	CAR	Kenyon Sadiq	Oregon	TE
20	DAL	T.J. Parker	Clemson	EDGE
21	PIT	Makai Lemon	USC	WR
22	LAC	Olaivavega Ioane	Penn State	G
23	PHI	Kadyn Proctor	Alabama	OT
24	CLE	Denzel Boston	Washington	WR
25	CHI	Kayden McDonald	Ohio State	DT
26	BUF	Kevin Concepcion	Texas A&M	WR
27	SF	Caleb Lomu	Utah	OT
28	HOU	Caleb Banks	Florida	DT
29	LAR	Monroe Freeling	Georgia	OT
30	DEN	CJ Allen	Georgia	LB
31	NE	Akheem Mesidor	Miami	EDGE
32	SEA	Colton Hood	Tennessee	CB

2026 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my mock process.

Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
Order players correctly within their position groups.
Match teams with positions of need.
Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. Sure, a mock without projected trades isn't realistic … but it might be more accurate.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

So much will change over the next few weeks (and months), but right now here are the 26 players I feel I must include in current mock iterations.

I think they all have a 75% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes between now and the draft).

QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), Makai Lemon (USC), Denzel Boston (Washington)
TE: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
OT: Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Spencer Fano (Utah), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), Caleb Lomu (Utah)
OG: Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)
EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), David Bailey (Texas Tech), Rueben Bain (Miami), Keldric Faulk (Auburn), Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)
DT: Peter Woods (Clemson), Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), Caleb Banks (Florida)
LB: Sonny Styles (Ohio State), CJ Allen (Georgia)
CB: Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), Mansoor Delane (LSU), Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

If not for his season-ending ACL tear, I also would've included WR Chris Bell (Louisville) on this list, but now—like CBs Benjamin Morrison and Shavon Revel last year—he will probably fall to Day 2 due to injury.

"Want to Include" Prospects for Round 1

After the aforementioned players, here are the four remaining guys I definitely want in Round 1 (as of now).

WR: Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)
EDGE: T.J. Parker (Clemson)
CB: Brandon Cisse (South Carolina), Colton Hood (Tennessee)

Borderline Prospects for Round 1

With QB Dante Moore and DT A'Mauri Washington returning to Oregon, I have two more spots available in Round 1.

Here are my top 10 candidates to fill those spots.

QB: Ty Simpson (Alabama)
OT: Monroe Freeling (Georgia), Gennings Dunker (Iowa)
OG: Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)
EDGE: Akheem Mesidor (Miami), Zion Young (MissourI), R. Mason Thomas (Oklahoma), LT Overton (Alabama)
S: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo), Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

Most mocks have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets) … but I simply don't think he belongs in the top 32.

For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but that's the problem with Simpson: He didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie he'll be 24 years old. In retrospect, it's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.

On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

I'm planting a flag here. I don't think he belongs in Round 1. I eventually might capitulate and put him back in my mock—but my relatively bold prediction for now is that Simpson will fall to Day 2.

So who am I putting in Round 1?

Mesidor and Freeling. As we've seen throughout the NFL this season, what happens in the trenches matters. It's almost impossible for NFL teams to have too many good OLs and EDGEs.

NFL Mock Draft Analysis

As we get closer to the draft, I'll provide pick-by-pick analysis in my mocks. For now, here are some general thoughts.

Quarterbacks

This is not the class that was promised.

In my way-too-early May 2025 mock, I had five QBs in Round 1.

Arch Manning (Texas): Staying in school one more year.
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Returning to school.
Drew Allar (Penn State): Season-ending ankle injury has impacted draft stock.
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): Benched midseason after struggling with abdominal injury.
Cade Klubnik (Clemson): Regressed in final season (8.4 AY/A as junior, 7.6 as senior).

This list is a reminder that no one knows anything. Not one of these guys is in my updated mock.

Based just on vibes, this class feels a little bit like the 2022 cohort (Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis). All three of them had hype, but only one landed in Round 1.

When we get to May and look back, I won't be surprised if we see just one QB in Round 1: Fernando Mendoza. (At least that's my early read right now.)

Check out my Mendoza scouting report.

With the exception of 2024 (I'm looking at you, Michael Penix and Bo Nix), QBs almost always go later than we expect.

Wide Receivers

This is a decent year for the position, but athletic testing will determine a lot. If a number of WRs tear up the combine, we could see six WRs go in Round 1, maybe more.

But if this class has modest pre-draft workouts, the number of WRs in the top 32 could drop to just two.

With five currently in my mock, I'm taking something of an optimistic view on this class. All of the WRs have imperfections—but enough of them have Round 1 qualities.

Defensive Front Seven

This is the strength of the class.

QB Fernando Mendoza is all but a lock to go No. 1 to the Raiders—but immediately after him I have three straight EDGEs going off the board in Arvell Reese, David Bailey and Rueben Bain.

And after them I have Keldric Faulk and Cashius Howell going in the top 10.

Is that aggressive?

Maybe—but this class is relatively bereft of no-doubt blue-chip prospects, and in their absence the players who check the most boxes this year are generally in the defensive front seven.

After the EDGE quintet of Reese, Bailey, Bain, Faulk, and Howell, I have another two EDGEs—as well as three DTs and two LBs—going in Round 1.

And that doesn't take into account the four EDGEs I have slated for the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

Offensive players are usually the guys who get most of the attention, but I expect Day 1 of the draft to be heavy on defensive contributors this year.

The No. 1 Pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts

In superflex leagues, positional scarcity may push QBs up the board, but in non-SF formats the No. 1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts is RB Jeremiyah Love.

He's just 20 years old, he won the 2025 Doak Walker Award as the top RB in college football, and over the past two seasons he put up 3,014 yards and 40 TDs from scrimmage in 28 games.

With a three-down skill set and workhorse frame (6-0, 214 lbs.), Love could be one of the NFL's top backs as a rookie.

If he lands in a functional offense—unlike Ashton Jeanty this past year—he could reasonably draw Round 1 investment in fantasy drafts for season-long, best ball and Guillotine Leagues^TM.

I currently have him mocked to the Saints at No. 8 … but I strongly considered him to the Commanders at No. 7. Same with the Chiefs at No. 9.

And I even thought about the Giants at No. 5 for half a second.

Anything can happen in the draft, and RB isn't widely regarded as a premium position, but I'd be surprised if Love made it out of the top 10.

Four Teams Control the Draft

Attention always goes to the team with the No. 1 overall pick—and the Raiders are certainly intriguing—but I tend to think the franchises with multiple selections in Round 1 usually control the draft.

This year, we have four such teams: The Jets, Browns, Cowboys and Rams.

Each of these teams has key questions entering the postseason:

Jets: Is there a QB who deserves to go at No. 2? (Answer: No.) If they think this is a class with only one viable QB, will they attempt to package their two picks to move up one spot?
Browns: Do they believe that QB Shedeur Sanders is the guy? And if not, will there be a QB they like enough at No. 6? (Answer: Probably not.)
Cowboys: They need help all over the defense. Do they invest both Round 1 picks in that side of the ball?
Rams: Is now the time to find QB Matthew Stafford's eventual successor? Or do they look to fortify an already-strong roster with OT and CB reinforcements?