
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite wagers for Super Bowl 60, covering everything from the game line to player props and speciality offerings.

The Super Bowl is easily the best day of the year for NFL bettors. Checking out the various offerings across the market is akin to walking down the steps as a kid on Christmas morning. There is a bevy of treasure available to us; all we have to do is unwrap it.
That said, the sheer volume of bets available across the major sportsbooks can be a bit overwhelming. In addition to all the usual bets you can make on a typical football game, there is also an expanded menu of player prop bets to choose from. Almost every player who is expected to see the field has something to consider.
Additionally, there are a handful of “novelty” or “specialty” props to choose from. Your bets aren’t even limited to the game itself. You can wager on the outcome of the coin flip, the duration of the National Anthem and what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach.
While it’s impossible to hit on all of these offerings, I’ve done my best to highlight a few areas where I’m seeing some value for Super Bowl Sunday. Let’s dive in.
As a long-suffering Jets fan, it pains me to have to side with the Patriots on Sunday. However, I think that’s where the value lies.
The perception of the Seahawks has simply changed too much over the past few weeks. They’ve gone from plucky underdog with an unproven commodity at quarterback to a pretty sizable favorite. Consider this. They were merely -1.5 at home vs. a banged-up 49ers squad in Week 18, and now they’re all the way up to -4.5 on a neutral field vs. a superior Patriots team.
The Seahawks have been the best team in the league this season, but calling them a juggernaut feels like a stretch. Their defense, in particular, has feasted against a host of uninspiring opponents. Look at who they’ve faced since their Week 8 bye:
That’s far from an inspiring group, with Stafford and the Rams presenting the only real challenge. Stafford had tremendous success in his three matchups vs. the Seahawks, passing for 961 yards and eight touchdowns with zero interceptions. This is obviously still a very good defense, but I don’t think they’re quite the same as the Legion of Boom.
We’re also yet to see how Sam Darnold fares away from home during the playoffs. Last week’s performance against the Rams may have erased most of the doubt surrounding Darnold’s playoff prospects, but doing it on a neutral field is a significantly tougher task. The Patriots defense has also been excellent when at full strength this season.
Then, there are the general trends surrounding underdogs in the Super Bowl. Underdogs are 13-5 against the spread over the past 18 Super Bowls, including covering in five straight. Dogs of at least three points are 9-2 in that stretch, and they’re 7-0 when getting more than a field goal. Mike Vrabel has also historically been one of the best coaches in the league when getting points, posting a 35-26-2 mark against the spread between his time with the Patriots and Titans.
Add it all up, and this game could be much closer than most people seem to think. Roughly two-thirds of the bets are siding with Seattle in this spot, not to mention all the different parlays and teasers that will have the Seahawks moneyline. Even if Seattle wins the game outright, I could see the Patriots keeping it within the number.
The anytime touchdown market is one I tend to avoid. Most players are overpriced, so it’s not an area with much value.
However, there are a couple of players that stand out to me on this slate. Barner is the first. He’s priced around the +240 range at most locations using our NFL Player Prop Finder tool, but he is available at +265 on Fanatics.
Barner has a couple of different paths towards finding the paint in this matchup. The most appealing is that he has taken over as the team’s preferred “tush push” option in short-yardage situations. He had a rushing attempt in that scenario in three of his past four games, and he’s converted a first down in each of them. None of those opportunities have come around the goal line, but he did convert a rushing touchdown in Week 9 vs. the Commanders.
Barner is also a viable part of the Seahawks’ passing attack. He has a 14% target share for the year, including 17% of their end zone targets. Barner had six receiving scores during the regular season, and the Patriots have had some vulnerability against tight ends. They allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game to the position, so Barner could have some success in this spot.
Jones is my other target, and it’s much more of a long shot. He’s a defensive back/returner, so he’s not going to have many opportunities to find the paint.
That said, Jones is clearly a major threat when the ball is in his hands. He already has two defensive touchdowns this season, including one vs. the Texans in the playoffs. He had two more touchdowns on special teams, giving him four scores in 20 games played. That’s pretty good for a guy with an implied probability of just 3.23% to find the paint on Sunday.
The best part? He’s facing the quarterback with the most turnovers in football this season. Darnold had 14 interceptions during the regular season (second-most in the league), and he put an NFL-high 11 balls on the turf via fumbles. I’ll take my chances at anything better than +2500.
While the Patriots are my preferred side for the game, the Seahawks are the more appealing team in the player prop market. Their offense is a bit more condensed than the Patriots', making them the easier team to decipher.
At running back, Walker has taken over as the team’s clear No. 1 option following the injury to Zach Charbonnet. That said, he’s still not exactly a bell cow. He was on the field for just 62% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he handled 76% of their rushing attempts. George Holani worked in on passing downs, and he should continue to be a factor in the Super Bowl.
Walker has had 19 carries in back-to-back games. He torched a weak 49ers' run defense for 116 yards, but he managed just 62 against the Rams’ excellent defense.
This week’s opponent looks much closer to the Rams than the 49ers. When the Patriots’ defense has been at full strength this season, they’ve been extremely difficult to run against. They’ve surrendered 87 rushing yards or fewer in four straight games, and only four RBs have cleared 73.5 rushing yards vs. New England this season: Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall and Devin Singletary. All four of those games came with defensive lineman Milton Williams unavailable, so no one has gotten to this figure against the Pats at full strength.
This number is down to 70.5 at most locations, but it’s still hanging in the mid-70s at some locations. This might be my favorite offering on the entire slate.
Conversely, Kupp is a player I’m bullish on. His production has flown a bit under the radar after the team acquired Shaheed before the trade deadline. He’s been the team’s clear No. 2 option over that stretch, posting a 17% target share from Week 10 on. Kupp has had marks of 31% and 18% in their two playoff outings, so he’s their most reliable pass-catcher not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Kupp hasn’t posted a ton of eye-popping production over that time frame, but he did have 60 yards against the 49ers in the Divisional Round. In a game where the Seahawks will likely have to throw the ball to move the sticks, I like him to have a solid performance. You could take the over on traditional receiving prop (33.5 yards), but I’m going with the slightly larger payout for 50+.
While Kupp has been the Seahawks’ No. 2 receiver from a volume standpoint, Shaheed is the big-play threat. His biggest impact in Seattle has come on special teams, where he’s already scored three touchdowns, but he’s capable of getting behind defensive backs as well. We saw that last week vs. the Rams, with his only catch going for 51 yards.
Shaheed also had a 30-plus-yard reception with the Seahawks during the regular season, and he was just narrowly missed on a second. He did it multiple times during his tenure with the Saints, so big plays are what he brings to the table.
In his two playoff outings this season, his average depth of target (aDOT) has been 27.5 and 23.0 yards. I like the idea of playing him for a long reception compared to his traditional receiving prop, especially with the potential of a juicy +430 payout.
These are the types of props where you can get really wild. There are various offerings that can offer monster payouts, but I’m going to keep things pretty conservative here.
The first prop that caught my eye was a cross-sport wager featuring Siakam and Henderson. This is essentially a fancy way of taking the under on Henderson in the Super Bowl, which makes a ton of sense. He was essentially a non-factor for the Patriots last week, playing on just 6% of the team’s offensive snaps. He had just three carries for five yards, and he failed to earn a single target.
Not much should change vs. the Seahawks. Seattle has an imposing defense, and the Patriots have clearly valued Stevenson’s skill set at the position more than Henderson’s.
Going with the Siakam over Henderson prop as opposed to just a straight Henderson under gives us a few more outs. Siakam has averaged 23.8 points per game this season, and that figure was up to 24.4 in January. He scored 27.0 points in his first outing in February, and he has nine games with at least 30 points. Siakam probably won’t go crazy vs. his old team, giving Henderson a chance to catch him in the Super Bowl, but that’s going to be tough to do if he doesn’t get on the field.
I’ve always loved the “Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer” prop, and this year, I’m leaning towards the under at better than even money. Essentially, the under gives us the following players between the two teams:
We also get a few defensive players, including Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Nick Emmanwori.
Walker is the clear favorite to score first, while Diggs, Maye and Kupp are also in the top seven. That means that we’re essentially fading Smith-Njigba, Stevenson and Barner as the main threats, as well as guys like Hunter Henry, Shaheed and Mack Hollins.
Even though there are slightly more options for the “over” 10.5, I think the quality of the players is better for the under. Add in the +120 odds, and it makes that side the clear play.
Finally, I’m looking to round out my portfolio with some exposure to the Seahawks’ pass rush. The Patriots’ offensive line has been a major weakness all season, and Maye has been sacked five times in all three playoff games.
The Seahawks are more of a “by committee” pass-rush team, with no one on the team having more than seven during the regular season. However, Williams and Lawrence are two of their most productive options. I’ll take my chances with them going for at least two sacks in this matchup at +290.
