
Matt LaMarca breaks down the best NFL DFS plays for the Conference Championship round of the NFL playoffs.

And then there were four. After all the talk about how “wide open” the playoffs felt this season, we’re left with arguably the four best teams in Conference Championship weekend. The Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship, while the NFC will feature the Seattle Seahawks at home vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
Of course, getting to this point was anything but easy for these teams. The Rams and Broncos both had to survive overtime in the Divisional Round, and the Broncos lost starting QB Bo Nix in the process. If they’re going to make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll have to do it with their backup QB under center.
The Patriots also struggled to put away the Texans for most of the game, despite C.J. Stroud imploding at quarterback. It took one of the best catches of the season from Kayshon Boutte to ultimately put things out of reach.
The Seahawks were the only team that rolled in the Divisional Round, and they were playing an extremely banged-up 49ers squad. However, the Seahawks were also dealt a blow in that contest, losing Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL.
We’re left with two games that have the potential to be excellent this Sunday. The Patriots are currently listed as 4.0-point road favorites over the Broncos, while the Seahawks are -2.5 vs. the Rams.
Let’s dive into some of the top DFS targets for the two-game slate and some potential alternatives at each position.
RELATED: NFL DFS projections for the Conference Championship Round.
The “final four” at quarterback is not exactly a who’s who. We’re missing most of the traditional big-name passers, guys like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. Instead, we’re left with Matthew Stafford and three guys who are still looking to make their mark on the biggest stage.
While Maye is only in his second season, he’s quickly established himself as an elite option at the position. He led the league in both completion percentage and adjusted yards per attempt this season, which is a pretty rare combination. He was rewarded with a second-team All-Pro selection, and he has a chance to take home the MVP as well.
For fantasy purposes, Maye combines his efficient passing with solid rushing upside. He didn’t use his legs much vs. the Texans, but he averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game with four total scores during the regular season. Add it all up, and he trailed only Allen at the position in terms of fantasy points per game.
Maye’s matchup vs. the Broncos is far from ideal, but Denver’s defense isn’t unfallible. Josh Allen and the Bills scored 30 points against them last week, and they’re merely ninth in pass defense EPA for the year. They represent a slightly easier test than the Texans did last week, and Maye was able to hold his own against that group.
Ultimately, he stands out as the top option on a slate without a true slam-dunk at the position.
Walker should be the heavy chalk at running back. Just like at QB, most of the biggest names in fantasy have already been sent home. Most of the remaining squads use some sort of committee at the position, so there is no true stud to consider.
Walker figures to be the closest thing to it. With Charbonnet now on the sidelines, Walker has a chance to be a true bell-cow back for the Seahawks moving forward.
That’s an extremely appealing proposition. Walker averaged 4.7 yards per carry this season, and he racked up 116 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns vs. the 49ers in the Divisional Round. The Rams are definitely a tougher matchup, but they’re also far from elite: they ranked 12th in rush defense EPA for the year. Walker had at least 20 DraftKings points in his two previous matchups vs. the Rams this season, and those were with Charbonnet in the picture.
Ultimately, he’s the running back most likely to accrue 20+ touches in this spot, making him a tough fade. That’s particularly true on DraftKings, where he hasn’t been priced up nearly as aggressively as he has on FanDuel.
The Patriots are the biggest favorites of the weekend, which bodes well for their running backs. Teams tend to run the ball more when they’re winning than when they’re losing, so it could be a good game script for the Pats’ RBs.
Stevenson continues to prove that he’s the back to roster in New England. He’s garnered the majority of the high-value touches in the team’s backfield all season, handling 67% of the short-yardage and 86% of the long-down-and-distance snaps. He also had a clear edge over TreVeyon Henderson in the rest of the touches in the Divisional Round as well, handling 62% of the snaps and 55% of the rushing attempts.
Henderson has cracked double-digit PPR points in seven straight games, and he’s had more than 15 in four of them. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling at his price tag.
There are two clear top options at the position on this slate: Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Neither player was particularly impressive in the Divisional Round, but they were the clear top producers at receiver during the regular season. Nacua led all receivers with an average of 23.4 PPR points per game, while Smith-Njigba was No. 2 at 21.2. JSN had the edge from a utilization standpoint, while Nacua played for the more explosive passing attack.
Choosing between these two is a bit like splitting hairs, but JSN gets the slight edge due to his cheaper price tag. His numbers last week are uninspiring (outside of a touchdown), but he still had a 25% target share in a game where the Seahawks didn’t have to throw much. Darnold will almost certainly need to attempt more than 17 passes in this game, and there’s a good chance that JSN will be on the receiving end. He had a 35% target share and 49% air yards share during the regular season, both of which were among the best marks in the league.
Smith-Njigba was also remarkably consistent, scoring more than 20 PPR points in 13 of his first 15 games. That includes both contests vs. the Rams. His production has fallen off a bit of late, but that feels more game script-related than anything else. As long as this game is more competitive, expect Smith-Njigba to go right back to being the same stud he’s been all year. Getting that guy at $8,000 feels like a massive steal.
While JSN might be the better pure value, there’s no denying that Nacua has more upside. He already has five games with more than 30 DraftKings points this season, and he has one of just under 50. Nacua went off for 37.5 DraftKings points in the Rams first playoff game before stumbling back to reality last week vs. the Bears.
Nacua still managed 10 targets in that outing, and he now has a 33% target share during the postseason. His route participation is also up over that time frame, giving him arguably even more upside than he had during the regular season.
The biggest issue for Nacua is the matchup. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and they’re fifth in pass defense EPA overall. Nacua did have one monster game vs. the Seahawks earlier this season, but that was with Davante Adams out of the lineup. He was much more mediocre in his first game vs. Seattle, finishing with seven catches for 75 scoreless yards.
Ultimately, Nacua isn’t quite as strong a value as Smith-Njigba, but both guys are still priority targets. Pairing both together isn’t particularly easy on DraftKings, but it’s my favorite lineup construction at the moment.
Kupp stands out as my favorite of the cheap receivers, and using at least one is essential if you’re going to get to Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Walker. Despite the addition of Rashid Shaheed, Kupp has maintained his role as the No. 2 option in Seattle’s passing attack. He has an 82% route participation and 17% target share since Shaheed was acquired, while Shaheed is at 65% and 10%, respectively.
Kupp was even more involved than usual in the team’s first playoff game. He had a 31% target share vs. the 49ers, albeit over a very small sample. He caught all five of his targets for 60 yards, getting him to 11 PPR points.
Kupp is ultimately too cheap for his current role at $3,800. I’m very comfortable using him in cash games to be access some of the more expensive options.
Tight end has looked dicey for the duration of the playoffs, and it’s only gotten weaker as more teams have been eliminated. We lost George Kittle to injury after the Wild Card round, and Colston Loveland is now out of the picture as well.
It leaves Henry as the easy choice for the top option at the position in the Conference Championships. He’s been a reliable fantasy producer for most of the year, though he doesn’t bring the highest ceiling to the table. Still, he was 13th at the position in PPR points per game during the regular season, while none of the other remaining options were inside the top 20.
Henry also managed 15.4 PPR points in his first playoff outing before coming back to reality against the Texans elite defense. The Broncos haven’t been quite as strong against TEs as they have against other positions, ranking 16th in PPR points per game allowed.
Add it all up, and Henry has the clear top marks at the position. He’s not much more expensive than the other options available on this slate, so he’s worth paying up for.




