NFL DFS Divisional Round Plays: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Colston Loveland and More
Matt LaMarca breaks down how to approach the four-game NFL DFS slate for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Welcome to what many people believe to be the best football weekend each season. We’re down to the final eight teams, setting up four high-stakes matchups across two days. Add in the College Football National Championship on Monday, and it’s as good a three-day stretch as you’ll find as a football fan.
This year, we’re left with the Seahawks vs. the 49ers and the Bears vs. the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round, while the Patriots vs. the Texans and the Broncos vs. the Bills will comprise the AFC. The winners will advance to the Conference Championships, while the losers will head back to the drawing board for next season.
It’s only fitting that a great football weekend comes with some great NFL DFS contests. The biggest slate covers the full four games across the whole weekend, with the action getting underway at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
The goal of this piece will be to walk you through each position and help identify the strongest options. Of course, I’ll be using some of our outstanding tools at Fantasy Life to help do so. Let’s dive right in.
RELATED: NFL DFS Projections for the Divisional Round
Quarterbacks Plays For The NFL DFS Divisional Round Slate
Top Stud: Josh Allen at Broncos ($7,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
It’s hard to find a much better option at QB than Allen. He led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game during the regular season, and he finished inside the top 10 at the position in 10 of his 16 regular-season starts. Allen also got off to a fantastic start this postseason, leading all QBs with 30.2 fantasy points in the Wild Card Round.
Allen gets a tough matchup this week vs. the Broncos, who limited opposing QBs to 2.3 fantasy points below their average during the regular season. Still, this is the divisional round; there aren’t a ton of defenses left that stand out as exploitable. Among this week's eight QBs, six have a negative Xfinty fantasy boost from a matchup standpoint.
With that in mind, going with the best player just makes sense. Allen is capable of dominating games with his arm and with his legs, and his rushing utilization last week was extremely encouraging. He had a season-high 29% designed run rate, and he handled 67% of their carries inside the five-yard line. With his talent, he’s capable of getting the job done against anyone, even in Denver.
Top Value: Matthew Stafford at Bears ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
We’re actually not projecting Allen for a ton of ownership in our DFS projections. Part of that is because he’s expensive, and saving money for other positions is usually pretty important in DFS. However, the other factor is that DFS players are expected to prefer Stafford at a similar price point.
Stafford turned in a phenomenal season for the Rams. He became just the fifth QB in NFL history with 40+ touchdown passes and fewer than 10 picks, and he was tied for second at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. The fact that he was able to compete with the top QBs in fantasy without any rushing upside of his own shows just how dominant he was with his right arm.
Stafford also draws the best matchup of the week by a wide margin. This game has the highest total of the week (48.5 points), and the Bears allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
His projections are only slightly lower than Allen’s, despite checking in at a slight discount.
Other Options
- Sam Darnold ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Darnold is the other QB with a “plus” matchup this week, taking on the banged-up 49ers. He still has a lot to prove about his ability to perform in big games, but this is a great spot for him to do it. He stands out as the best of the “cheap” options.
- Drake Maye ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Maye has a scary matchup on paper vs. the Texans, who have been the best defensive team in football this season. They just made the Steelers’ offense look completely helpless, though that might be due more to the Steelers than the Texans. Maye was tied with Stafford in terms of fantasy points per game during the regular season, and he brings solid rushing upside to the table.
- Bo Nix ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Nix stands out as a very nice value on FanDuel, where he checks in as the third-cheapest option. His matchup vs. the Bills isn’t quite as scary as some of the others on this slate, and while Nix was inconsistent this season, he did display a big ceiling at times.
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Running Back Plays For The NFL DFS Divisional Round Slate
Top Stud: Christian McCaffrey at Seahawks ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel)
McCaffrey is the only true stud left at running back among the final eight squads. Most of the other top producers were eliminated during the regular season, and Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Travis Etienne joined them after the Wild Card round.
Regardless of his competition, McCaffrey has been the top fantasy running back all season. He leads the position in fantasy points per game, thanks primarily to his elite usage as a receiver. He led all running backs in target share for the year, and he was sixth in targets overall this season.
McCaffrey has displayed a stable floor and an elite ceiling for most of the year. He’s had at least 22.7 DraftKings points in 13 of 18 games, and he’s had at least 15.7 in three of the exceptions. That leaves him with just two real clunkers in his game log.
Unfortunately, one of those came against the Seahawks in Week 18. That was essentially a playoff game, with the winner getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the loser being relegated to a Wild Card spot. McCaffrey had just eight carries for 23 yards in that contest, and he caught six of seven targets for 34 yards.
The biggest issue was that the 49ers offense could muster nothing against Seattle’s elite defense. They ran just 42 total plays, which is as low as you’ll see in an NFL game.
The Seahawks could put the clamps on the 49ers once again, but it’s also possible that Kyle Shanahan was saving his “best stuff” for the playoffs. Regardless, McCaffrey leads the position in raw projections, and his ceiling projection is nearly six points higher than the No. 2 option.
Top Value No. 1: RJ Harvey vs. Bills ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
The Broncos will take the field for the first time this postseason, and they draw a fantastic matchup for their rushing attack. Buffalo has been shredded on the ground for most of the year, and we saw that once again in their Wild Card matchup vs. the Jaguars. Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten and Trevor Lawrence combined for 149 yards on just 20 carries, good for an average of nearly 7.5 per tote. The Bills have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position for the year, giving the Broncos’ RBs an xFinity Boost of +2.0.
Harvey will serve as the top option in their backfield. He’s handled that role ever since J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury in Week 10. Harvey has amassed a 61% rushing share over the team’s past seven games, and he’s averaged better than 15.0 PPR points over that stretch. That number would be even higher if not for a 4.3 clunker in Week 18; he had at least 18.6 PPR points in four of his previous five games.
Harvey has the third-highest projections at the position, and he checks in pretty similarly to the more expensive James Cook. He could provide the best per-dollar production on this slate.
Top Value No. 2: Woody Marks at Patriots ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
The Texans’ rushing attack was not supposed to be a strength last week vs. the Steelers. They’ve struggled against the pass for most of the year, but they’ve been pretty good against the run. Add in some subpar rushing production for the Texans’ offense during the regular season, and it was expected to be the passing attack that would lead them to victory.
Instead, Marks gouged the Steelers for 112 yards on 19 carries. He added a rushing touchdown, bringing his tally to 20.2 fantasy points.
Marks spent most of the year operating in a timeshare, but he has emerged as the Texans clear-cut top option down the stretch. He was on the field for 70% of the team’s offensive snaps last week vs. the Steelers, and he handled 61% of their designed rushing attempts.
Marks draws another subpar matchup this week vs. the Patriots, but he stands out as the cheapest of the true lead backs across the industry. He doesn’t grade out nearly as well as Harvey in our projections, but he’s still one of the better per-dollar options at the position.
Other Options
- Zach Charbonnet ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): The Seahawks are the largest favorites of the week, which naturally makes their running backs appealing options. Unfortunately, they are the quintessentially committee backfield, with Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker splitting the touches almost right down the middle. Charbonnet has the better projections of the two, giving him the edge for DFS purposes, but both players could warrant some exposure.
- Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): I am #TeamStevenson in the Patriots’ backfield. While TreVeyon Henderson might be the more explosive athlete, Stevenson is the one getting most of the high-value touches. Specifically, he’s their preferred option around the goal line and in passing situations, which are the two most important areas for fantasy scoring.
- Kyren Williams ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): While Williams doesn’t get as large a share as he did in previous years with the Rams, he’s still the team’s clear lead back. He scored more than 15 PPR points in their first playoff outing, and no team has a higher implied team total in the Divisional Round.
Wide Receiver Plays For The NFL DFS Divisional Round Slate
Top Studs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) & Puka Nacua at Bears ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)
There’s really no need to belabor this one. Smith-Njigba and Nacua have been the two best receivers in fantasy all season, and they should be two of the highest-owned options on this slate. It’s hard to imagine building a lineup without either player, and a large chunk of the field will probably use both.
As for which receiver gets the top spot, it’s extremely close. Nacua plays for the better offense, while Smith-Njigba gets a better matchup. Smith-Njigba has a slight edge in median projection, while Nacua has a slight edge from a ceiling standpoint.
Choosing between these two is the definition of a “first-world problem.” Both guys are elite players, and both will probably perform in their respective matchups.
Top Value No. 1: Christian Kirk at Patriots ($4,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
The Texans have officially ruled out Nico Collins for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Patriots, leaving Kirk as their de facto No. 1 option. Kirk had a relatively quiet first year with the Texans, splitting time with a handful of other receivers in the No. 2 role. But when Collins went down last week, Kirk was the guy who picked up the slack. He was only on the field for 66% of the team’s pass plays, but he was targeted on 35% of his routes run. The result was a healthy 27% target share overall, and he responded with 31.4 DraftKings points. That was the third-highest mark at the position last week.
That kind of volume makes Kirk feel like a free square at $4,100 on DraftKings. Using him makes getting two of McCaffrey, JSN and Nacua very doable. Things are a bit more interesting on FanDuel, but he still has some appeal there as well.
Top Value No. 2: Khalil Shakir at Broncos ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
The Bills have used a committee approach in the passing attack all season, with Shakir leading the team with a 21% target share. That said, when the chips were down last week, Shakir was the guy that Allen went to frequently. He racked up a 35% target share vs. the Jaguars, catching all 12 of his looks for 82 yards.
While that leaves a lot to be desired in terms of yards per target, it resulted in plenty of fantasy points. He had 20.2 DraftKings points, which was the seventh-highest mark at the position.
Shakir stands out as another strong per-dollar investment at the position. He should serve as Allen’s safety blanket once again, and the fact that he runs most of his routes from the slot could pay dividends vs. the Broncos. Slot corner Ja’Quan McMillan is no slouch, but it means he should at least avoid Pat Surtain for most of the game.
Other Options
- Courtland Sutton ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): It looked like Sutton was losing his job as the Broncos top receiver in the middle of the season, but he rebounded with a strong finish. He posted a 27% target share from Weeks 14 through 17, and if he can maintain that level vs. the Bills, he has the potential to be an excellent value. He has the fourth-best projections at receiver, trailing only the stud duo and Davante Adams.
- Jauan Jennings ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Someone has to catch the ball for the 49ers besides McCaffrey. George Kittle suffered a devastating injury last week, leaving Jennings as their top remaining option. He made his biggest impact last week as a passer, throwing a touchdown to McCaffrey on a trick play, but he also posted a 91% route participation. Ricky Pearsall could return this week (currently questionable), but Demarcus Robinson would be another interesting 49ers target if he’s unable to go.
- Stefon Diggs ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Diggs jumped up to an 85% route participation last week, which was one of his best marks of the season. The team took it easy on him during the regular season, but now that we’ve made the playoffs, it’s possible that Diggs becomes more of a full-time player. That didn’t result in a huge jump in production vs. the Chargers, but it bodes well for his prospects moving forward.
Tight End Plays For The NFL DFS Divisional Round Slate
Top Stud: Colston Loveland vs. Rams ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
I’m old enough to remember when the Bears were ridiculed for drafting Loveland over Tyler Warren. While Warren started the year red hot, Loveland was biding his time for the Bears. He took on a much larger role during the stretch, and he absolutely erupted in the first round of the postseason. He racked up a massive 34% target share vs. the Packers just one week after posting a 46% mark in the final game of the regular season.
Loveland has now finished as a top-two scorer at the position in three straight games, including back-to-back finishes as TE1. With Kittle on the sidelines, there is no one left who can challenge him for the top spot at tight end. He leads the position from a projection standpoint by a pretty wide margin, so he’s the clear “pay up” option on this slate. He’s way underpriced at just $6,000 on FanDuel, and he should be extremely popular on that site.
Top Value: Jake Tonges at Seahawks ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
There is absolutely no reason to go with Tonges over Loveland on FanDuel, where he’s just $200 cheaper. But on DraftKings? He provides a nice source of savings there, making him arguably the better option on a per-dollar basis.
Tonges didn’t exactly crush after Kittle exited early last week, but we’ve seen him provide value in this role in the past. With Kittle out from Weeks 2 through 6, Tonges posted a respectable 16% target share and responded with 11.0 PPR points per game. He was a top-10 TE in terms of fantasy scoring over that time frame, so he’s a bit underpriced for his current role.
Other Options
- Dalton Schultz ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Schultz has been the Texans most reliable No. 2 option this season, and he could see a boost in responsibilities with Collins out of the picture. He ranks second at tight end in our projections, trailing only Loveland.
- AJ Barner ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Barner was a sneaky TD threat for the Seahawks during the regular season, scoring six times on just 52 catches. Most of his production came early in the year, but he did have a huge TD catch in the team’s massive win over the Rams in Week 16. He has arguably the best pure matchup at the position this week, leading all TEs with a +1.4 xFinity boost.
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